Popular policies might be the explanation for Labour’s increase in the polls since the start of the campaign At the start of this general election campaign, I thought there was a chance that my 10/1 bets on Labour polling sub 20% might be in play but during this general election campaign if the polls are accurate, Labour’s share of the vote has risen, and Labour might end up polling close to 40%. Now there’s much discussion about what is driving up…
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will win a majority Despite all the light and heat generated with recent polling, I still expect the Tories to win a majority, unless Nick Timothy decides to add another Nimitz class sized barnacle to the Tory boat between now and June 8th The Tories still lead in the polls, the leadership and economic polling also favour the blue team, but the size of the majority will determine how her…
Tonight's @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc) Via @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/NkUZm20Z2d — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Looks like women are behind the Corbyn surge in @ORB_Int poll. Fieldwork Wed and Thurs https://t.co/nnoHIskTIM pic.twitter.com/MP2w59QJAK — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Well if these polls turn out be accurate then Mrs May’s gamble to hold an early election will turn out be a mistake. What will keep Mrs May and CCHQ happy is…
The @OpiniumResearch poll Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc) Look at the leader ratings. FW Tues/Wed https://t.co/OKZIp0G1Q6 pic.twitter.com/JnPsr7bx5J — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Con 12-pt lead @ComRes for @Independent & @TheSundayMirrorCon 46% -2Lab 34% +4LD 8% -2UKIP 5% 0Green 2% -1(Changes since 2 weeks ago) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 27, 2017 Corbyn leads by 23 points on best to protect old people who need social care @ComRes for @Independent https://t.co/XuXHxV9ZUf — John…
The wheels have come off the wagon for Team Theresa. Just two weeks ago the blue team’s lead looked more fearsome than the north face of the Eiger. Theresa May looked to be cruising to victory and the saboteurs were on track to be crushed. The stocks were sold; the press was squared: the middle class was quite prepared. But the middle class were emphatically not prepared for the Tories’ social care policy, which seems to have gone down like…
TONIGHT: Iconic psephologist @SirDavidButler tells @maitlis he's never seen such a big movement of opinion in election polls #newsnight pic.twitter.com/MSaQXOAykM — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) May 26, 2017 I spent the whole of yesterday in the sweltering heat of central London discussing with one group after another the same subject – how GE2017 had suddenly become so much harder to predict. During the morning I was at an academic conference at the British Academy on the intriguing subject of whether June…
The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400. SportingIndex has it slightly higher at 373-379 which means that my sell bet at 393 placed on Saturday night is now showing a nice profit. What’s nice about this form of betting is that you can take and pocket your profits well before the election has taken place….
New YouGov polling just published had her dipping into negative territory One of the striking features of TMay’s period at Number 10 is how she has maintained positive leadership ratings throughput. Whether pollsters were asking about approval, favourability, satisfaction, or whether she was doing a good or bad job all the numbers were positive from the moment she became PM last July. That run ended in the aftermath of the launch of the controversial General Election manifesto a week last…