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The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest betting

8/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Headline voting intentions from our final #GE2017 poll for @standardnews https://t.co/fgzdOQg4bZ #infographic #dataviz pic.twitter.com/5b9bhzjHde — Ipsos UK (@IpsosUK) June 8, 2017 Working on the survey that really matters – the exit poll The exit poll in action – hundreds of Ipsos MORI and GFK pollsters in marginal seats across Britain. #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/pLA68ygBMt — Ben Page (@benatipsos) June 8, 2017 The betting sees CON rise curbed but still big majority LAB seats up above 200 on the spreadsSPIN 203-209 SpreadEx 201-207https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1…

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At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017 right?

8/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

No one can accuse the pollsters of herding this time With just one firm still to publish, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard, the above Wikipedia list looks like the almost final polling table of 2017. The variation between the firms is simply amazing and unprecedented in any previous general election. One thing is for certain some reputations will be made tonight and some will be trashed. In many ways I admire the bravery of those pollsters who have not felt the…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

7/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions. Listen here Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @mikesmithsonpb @tseofpb

Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general election spreadsheet

7/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Regular political betting readers will remember with much affection (and well-upholstered bank accounts) the spreadsheet that AndyJS produced for the EU referendum, setting out the expected For 2017, he has prepared a constituency by constituency summary in order of their declaration in 2015, with the 2010 and 2015 tallies for each party. Using this, we should be able to identify patterns and trends more quickly, given that declarations are likely in practice to be in a fairly similar approximate order…

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Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

7/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The opinion polls have obscured the view of what’s happening in the election rather than clarifying it. But bettors remain convinced of the following: The Conservatives are going to do better than most of the polling would suggest on an application of uniform national swing. The under/over line is set with Ladbrokes at 360.5, while the recent Opinium poll (which is fairly mainstream) would imply 349 seats. Labour are going to do worse than most of the polling would suggest…

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All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May

6/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/870618761887453184 Mrs May needs not only a Willie, but also a Sir Keith Joseph If Mrs May wants to emulate the success of Mrs Thatcher, I’ve said before she needs a Willie, but assuming Mrs May wins a majority on Thursday, what this campaign has exposed is that she needs better support and advisers, as ‘the vision thing’ is lacking, as exemplified by the disastrous announcement of the social care changes that led many opponents to characterise it as a…

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The first of the final polls from the most accurate online firm at GE2015

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Our final poll of the general election campaign gives the Conservatives a lead of 7 points over Labour #ge2017 https://t.co/B511292P2W pic.twitter.com/gMrz5dywHm — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) June 6, 2017 Opinium has CON lead up 1 LDs up 2 We are going to see a lot of these in the next 36 hours – the final polls on which, rightly or wrongly, the pollsters will be judged. Opinium has had a good record recently. It got the London Mayoral race spot on,…

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Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to happen when they’re clearly ahead

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Nate Silver’s 538 Why we shouldn’t rely on the “add a few points to the CON poll shares” this time One of the ongoing themes of this election is that the polls always understate the Tories. Certainly there have been a lot of instances where that has happened as the chart from 538 above illustrates. But it is a lot more subtle than that. Just go through it general election by general election. The polls were almost running level last…

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