It was the Question Time special exactly a week before polling day that sealed Theresa’s fate

It was the Question Time special exactly a week before polling day that sealed Theresa’s fate

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Reappraising the polling that got rubbished by the so called experts Last night I watched again the Question Time leaders’ special with Corbyn and TMay from the University of York that took place on June 1st exactly a week before the election. On the night itself the PMs performance was well received particularly by right wing commentators. The only polling on this event, carried by Survation on the Saturday, had TMay doing badly and Corbyn doing well. The survey ,…

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Vince Cable looks set to become the first Strictly contestant to lead a political party

Vince Cable looks set to become the first Strictly contestant to lead a political party

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The news tonight that ex-coalition cabinet minister, Ed Davey, is not planning to stand for the LD leadership means that that former Business Secretary Secretary looks set to take over from Tim Farron as LD leader. Davey became the third prominent LD to announce he wasn’t going forward after Jo Swinson and Norman Lamb. The formal nomination process ends on July 20th which means that Vince will have to wait till then before taking the crown. As someone pointed out…

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If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic Theresa could carry on I’d be a buyer

If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic Theresa could carry on I’d be a buyer

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There’ll always be a reason why now’s not the time for her to go For a party that has a reputation for knifing failed leaders the Tories have been pretty pathetic so far with Theresa May. The deal with the DUP makes her position securer and there is always going to be a reason why deposing the woman that got the party into this mess should remain. Provided there are no defections or by-election losses her parliamentary position should hold…

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Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

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This appears to be between Davis and Hammond There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment. The race, if that is indeed what we re watching, seems to be polarising around the Brexit Secretary, David Davis and Chancellor Philip Hammond. If there was to be an early contest, and that…

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Labour hubris equals Tory hope

Labour hubris equals Tory hope

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Socialism is on the march and about to seize power in the UK, so many on the Labour left believe. This, argues Joff Wild, should give the Tories hope Socialism is on the march and about to seize power in the UK, so many on the Labour left believe. This If I were a Tory I would be loving that faint smell of Labour hubris in the morning. As I contemplated the wreckage of the general election, that grubby-looking deal…

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Cost to tax-payers of TMay’s calamitous election decision and terrible campaign: £1bn

Cost to tax-payers of TMay’s calamitous election decision and terrible campaign: £1bn

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This gives the Tories an effective majority of 15 A deal has been done. The Tories are to be propped up in Parliament by the 10 DUP MPs who have negotiated a £1bn deal for the province. So TMay’s party will be able to struggle on although the parliamentary arithmetic still looks tight and is nothing like as comfortable as during the 2010-2015 CON-LD coalition. We are going to see some very tight Commons votes with the opposition parties seeking…

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The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unprecedented

The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unprecedented

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Wikipedia Never before has main opposition party had such margins after an election We have now had three voting polls since the general election and all of them, as can be seen in the table above, have shown clear leads for Labour. This is highly unusual and almost unprecedented. Almost always the first polls after a general election see the winner doing better than it did in the voting on the day. Thanks to Mark Pack’s excellent Pollbase place we…

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After just 3 Tory PMs in 37 years we might soon see 3 Tory PMs in just 3 (yes three) years

After just 3 Tory PMs in 37 years we might soon see 3 Tory PMs in just 3 (yes three) years

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Very interesting story from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/uj2SdQkuuP pic.twitter.com/MaOQRAq3sO — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 25, 2017 The Sunday Times report Philip Hammond is being lined up to replace Theresa May as prime minister as part of an alliance with David Davis to deliver Brexit safely. Ministers said this weekend that Hammond should be anointed as leader before October’s party conference provided he vows to stand down after two years so that someone else can lead the Conservatives into the next election. A former…

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