If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019

If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019

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Good scoop. Terrible idea? https://t.co/GzIq9bfKJq — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 2, 2017 Even before her first anniversary as Prime Minister, Mrs May’s departure is being planned. The Sun are reporting that PRESSURE is growing on Theresa May from Tory grandees to name June 2019 as the time she will step down as PM. Senior party figures want her to spell out a timetable for her No10 departure at the Conservatives’ annual conference in October. Declaring she will stay on…

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Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of future polling then the 4/1 might be value

Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of future polling then the 4/1 might be value

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Iff this @Survation poll with a 9% lead for Remain turns out not to be an outlier but the start of a trend, what will this mean for Brexit? pic.twitter.com/dMxkLBfhwW — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 2, 2017 No one but no one knows what is going to happen in two years' time. But it is going to be the reckoning: @adamboultonSKY Sunday Times £ pic.twitter.com/0N5IlA3h6V — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 2, 2017 If the @Survation polling on Brexit turns out to…

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How the Corbyn surge has left the Lib Dems positioned largely as an anti-Tory party

How the Corbyn surge has left the Lib Dems positioned largely as an anti-Tory party

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Labour aren’t in second place in any of the seats the Lib Dems hold, and Labour hold only 4 of the top 30 Lib Dem target seats Looking through the results of June 8th I was struck by how much the Corbyn surge has left the Lib Dems as a Tory facing party. As we can see in above chart, in not one of the twelve seats the Lib Dems hold are Labour second, it is either the Tories or…

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Everything is negotiable, how the election result may have improved Britain’s negotiating position in the Brexit talks

Everything is negotiable, how the election result may have improved Britain’s negotiating position in the Brexit talks

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It wasn’t supposed to be like this.  Theresa May called the general election calling for a mandate for her Brexit vision.  In her own words: “Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong.  They underestimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country….

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Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories

Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories

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But genuine gains from the Lib Dems and Labour did. Jeremy Corbyn would be prime minister today if the Scottish Tories had done as badly three weeks ago as they did in 2015 (or any of the previous four elections). Without the dozen gains north of the border, a deal with the DUP wouldn’t have given her the numbers and a deal with anyone else couldn’t have been done. It would have been game over. Given the different nature of…

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Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)

Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)

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Dawdon on Durham (Lab defence) Result: Labour 693 (52% +6% on May 2017), Independent 633 (48%, no candidate in May 2017) Labour HOLD with a majority of 60 (4%) Hedge End and Grange Park on Eastleigh (Lib Dem defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 668 (56% +14% on last time), Conservative 316 (27% +4% on last time), Labour 144 (12% +7% on last time), Green Party 41 (3%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 14 (1% -29% on last time)…

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If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side

If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side

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There’s been just one by-election in past 16 years caused by death/illness of CON incumbent There is a lot of hope on the Labour side that the small CON working majority with the DUP could be cut as result of a by-election loss. The only problem with this is that historically there have been very few by-elections caused by the illness or death of the CON incumbent. Since 2001 there has been just one compare with 15 Labour health/death ones….

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