William Hill have a few markets up and as is often the case, most of the markets you wish they’d offer the other side of the bet a well. If I had to choose I’d take the 1/12 on Jeremy Corbyn not to be PM before the 1st of January 2018, I simply can’t see the Tories wanting to call an early election. I can see a scenario where those Tory Leavers who get tumescent at the prospect of a…
One of the most worrying features for Mrs. May following her failed GE17 gamble and her determination to stay in the job has been the sharp move downwards in her leader ratings. Whether the format has been about favourability, satisfaction, approval or doing well/badly she has seen a very sharp reversal since June 8th. Trump has had poor ratings right from the start and in recent weeks the President has seen his net favourability numbers down at a net minus…
Just a month to the day after the extraordinary general election many Tories, particularly those still loyal to the woman who caused their electoral disaster, continue to point to the overall 13.6m CON votes that were chalked up as though that had some great meaning. This is real straw clutching and in no way excuses her disastrous decision to break her promise to call an election three years early and then to lose the CON majority. Sure the Tory vote…
The election has transformed expectations and confidence within Labour With so much focus on whether Theresa May will survive – or perhaps more accurately, for how long – it’s an opportune time to have a look at the same bet on the other side. After all, the value is often there to be had when people aren’t paying enough attention. And value there must be for the simple reason that the Corbyn Exit Date market has perhaps the single worst…
Ministers dash business hopes of transitional Brexit deal https://t.co/N58qbJtyAp — FT UK Politics (@ftukpolitics) July 7, 2017 The FT are reporting this evening Senior ministers have rejected calls by British business leaders for the UK to stay in the EU customs union and single market for a lengthy period after Brexit, raising fears of a bumpy transition to a new trading relationship with Europe. The CBI employers body raised the stakes on Thursday by proposing that Britain stay inside the…
Corbyn’s Labour now have a 12% lead with the upper and middle classes, let that sink in. I think whilst this might be an outlier it is probably a result of Mrs May and her close advisers decision to abdicate from focusing much/any time on the economy during the general election campaign lest Philip Hammond had a good campaign and made it impossible for Mrs May to sack Philip Hammond on June 9th. The Tories must hope whomever succeeds Mrs…
Ditching Mrs May won’t be the panacea for the Tories some Tories think it will be. Last night stories emerged that Theresa May is a ‘lame horse’, furious Tory ministers warn, amid claims they could resign to force her out, but I’m coming to the conclusion that whilst Mrs May is a pox on the Tory party, ditching her won’t necessarily improve the Tory party in the polls, though it would stop the haemorrhaging. The chart above sums up the…
Exclusive: 8 point lead for Labour in first YouGov / Times poll since election..Lab 46Con 38 pic.twitter.com/PFe2ktnY3n — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 6, 2017 Poll analysis: tonight's numbers make an early election both less and more likely — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 6, 2017 ?: Angry Tory junior ministers plot to engineer mass resignation coup in bid to oust "horse with broken leg" PM: https://t.co/MZffj7wqY4 — Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) July 6, 2017 She must be facing her Leo…