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LAB the big winner in the August local by-elections with net gain of 3 and vote share up 14%

1/9/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Local By-Election Summary : August 2017 Votes Cast, Share and Change on last time Labour 6,275 votes (41% +14% on last time) winning 6 seats (+3 seats on last time) Conservatives 5,893 votes (38% +3% on last time) winning 5 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 2,000 votes (13% +4% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 618 votes (4% -14% on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time)…

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Corbyn now takes over the favourite slot in the next PM betting

1/9/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Oddschecker TMay’s successor as PM is a betting market we’ve not looked at for some time and the big development is that LAB leader, Jeremy Corbyn is now the favourite from a range of bookies. Much of this is down to the fact that there is no clear alternative to TMay as Tory leader though that could change during the coming party conference season. I’m not sure I’d agree with the betting and this isn’t a market I’ve had any…

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TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses since the Blair landslide 20 years ago

31/8/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The extraordinary thing is that she’s still there One of the consequences of her statement that she’d like to fight the next general election is that people will recall what happened in June when nearly two decades of recovery for the party came to an abrupt end. As can be seen in the chart at every election after the 1997 Blair drubbing there had been quite a lot of progress in terms of seats. It is no wonder that the…

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TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

31/8/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

.@nicholaswatt speaks to former Downing St adviser @CraigOliver100 about Theresa May's ambition to stay beyond the next election #newsnight pic.twitter.com/N1VnMGieoB — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) August 30, 2017 Feels like the reaction among Tory MPs to May saying she'll fight on is "Lol, you're not" not "Oh dear, better putsch her early". — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) August 30, 2017 Maybe the plan is to bring things to a head By announcing overnight her desire to carry on as CON leader and…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Discussing the Brexit talks with Jonathan Portes

30/8/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The PB/Polling Matters podcast returns with a review of the summer and in-depth interview on the Brexit talks and where Britain goes from here with Jonathan Portes. Jonathan is a Professor of Economics at King’s College London and a Senior Fellow for UK in a Changing Europe. An expert in matters of immigration and labour markets, Jonathan was Chief Economist at the DWP from 2002 to 2008 and at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He was also Director…

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Towards a rational immigration policy

30/8/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Turkey has mandatory conscription for men between 20 and 41. Gay men, however, are exempt. According to the official commentary to the army’s health regulation, to be exempted from service, “documentary evidence must prove that the defects in sexual behaviour are obvious and would create problems when revealed in a military context.” Many gay men have to endure pseudo-scientific tests designed to appraise both their homosexuality and the extent to which it might render them “unfit” for service. Some are…

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McCluskey’s comments on Corbyn’s successor help move Emily Thornberry to 2nd favourite

30/8/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Unite boss’s backing could be crucial While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership there’s been a shake up in the Next LAB leader market after a report from Paul Waugh at HuffPost. He wrote: “Emily Thornberry is being backed by Unite boss Len McCluskey to become Labour’s first woman leader, HuffPost UK can reveal. The general secretary of the UK’s biggest trade union has told friends that he thinks Thornberry is a unifying figure who can…

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Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point

29/8/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error. The regular Brexit tracker from the firm sees those saying it was wrong with a 2% lead. Last month those saying it was right were 2% ahead. Again this is all margin of error stuff and there is no indication of any BrexRegrets. UPDATE ICM also sees narrowing of gap New ICM polls has LAB & CON level…

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