TMay’s successor as PM is a betting market we’ve not looked at for some time and the big development is that LAB leader, Jeremy Corbyn is now the favourite from a range of bookies.
Much of this is down to the fact that there is no clear alternative to TMay as Tory leader though that could change during the coming party conference season.
I’m not sure I’d agree with the betting and this isn’t a market I’ve had any bets on. The most likely circumstance in which Corbyn becomes next PM is at a general election while TMay is still CON leader and PM and I cannot see the Tory party allowing her still be at Number 10 by then.
The reaction to her interviews in Tokyo about not being a quitter and wanting to lead the party next time has not been good for the incumbent. The Tories maybe ready to let her stay for now but they want someone else to be in the job by the time of the next general election.
A big factor on the timing of the next election is the SNP which could is vulnerable to losing a lot of its 35 MPs many of whom have very small majorities. In June the party dropped to this total after winning 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats at GE2015. In April the party voted against TMay’s election call and would not, surely, get involved in a contrived confidence motion to force an election.
Without the SNP then it is hard to see how Labour can force an election.
If Corbyn is to become PM then he’ll succeed TMay’s Tory successor and not TMay herself.