If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

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Tory MPs tell me they are deeply anxious sexual harassment scandal escalating to be worse than expenses, and devastating for May https://t.co/eroIk0FRiD — Robert Peston (@Peston) October 30, 2017 PM’s official spokesman has refused to say she is confident none of her Cabinet have committed sexual misconduct. A bizarre state. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 30, 2017 PM fears dossier on pervy MPs may force her into cabinet reshuffle. https://t.co/e96RDxi8yX — David Wooding (@DavidWooding) October 28, 2017 Not looking…

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Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

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She’s doing better than IDS in 2003 Yesterday was the 14th anniversary of what I considered to be one of the best political betting days ever where the best place to find out what was happening was to look at the prices on the Betfair Exchange. After taking over from William Hague two days after 9/11 Iain Duncan Smith struggled for more than 2 years to maintain the confidence of his party and that all finally snapped at the end…

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When Mrs May announces her decision to stand down or is removed

When Mrs May announces her decision to stand down or is removed

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Announcing her departure at the Tory conference in October 2018 looks value at 12/1 I like this market from Paddy Power, a lot of the markets on Theresa May’s departure are when she formally stops being Prime Minister, this market is when she announces her intention to stand down (or loses a vote of confidence of the parliamentary party), not when she actually goes. For example if this market had existed for David Cameron, it would have paid out on…

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It’s Mueller time

It’s Mueller time

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Exclusive: A federal grand jury has approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Mueller https://t.co/ZVvg1WCjMs pic.twitter.com/fXsVZUILni — CNN (@CNN) October 28, 2017 JUST IN: Office of the Special Counsel will serve up an indictment Monday in connection with Russia probe, an official confirms to NBC News — NBC News (@NBCNews) October 28, 2017 Important news for those of us betting on whether Trump will be impeached or serve a full term CNN reported in the early…

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From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit

From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit

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If talks go down to the wire, ratification will go beyond them Brexits are like fairies. There are good ones, bad ones and if you say it with enough feeling, they might not exist at all. What we haven’t heard much of so far – though given David Davis’ comments at the Select Committee this week, we should have done – is the Limbo Brexit. What is that, you might ask. In a somewhat numerically-challenged observation, Davis claimed that a…

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Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

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There’s a new YouGov poll out which has LAB retaining its 2 points lead over CON. The survey also included the firm’s regular trackers on opinion in relation to Brexit. In broad terms this has Brexit right at 43% (up 1) with Brexit wrong at 45% (same) so really not much change. The big picture is seen in the chart above – the nation remains broadly divided with the monthly average “right to leave” lead for only the second month…

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The next PM could be someone who is opposed to women who’ve been raped having abortions

The next PM could be someone who is opposed to women who’ve been raped having abortions

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Jacob Rees-Mogg says that women who seek abortion after rape are committing a “second wrong” – @zoe_beaty https://t.co/MI1uVvpCUX pic.twitter.com/piinX3n3fN — thepooluk (@thepooluk) October 26, 2017 The Pool If Rees-Mogg goes for it abortion will dominate the campaign Jacob Rees-Mogg continues to feature strongly in the betting for next CON leader and next PM. He’s third favourite for the former and fourth favourite for the latter, The latest Betfair trades in both markets make him a 10% chance. There’s no doubt…

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