DDavis drops sharply in the next CON leader betting following reports that he might quit

DDavis drops sharply in the next CON leader betting following reports that he might quit

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And he’s now being backed for next Cabinet exit A report in the Telegraph about the frustration that BrexSec DDavis is having with his job has prompted big changes in two betting markets – next CON leader and next Cabinet exit. Under the heading “Exclusive: David Davis could quit because ‘he is being frozen out on Brexit strategy’ by civil servants”. the paper’s Christopher Hope reports: “.David Davis could walk out on his job as Britain’s lead negotiator on Brexit…

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The Electoral Commission’s investigation into Leave’s funding could halt Brexit

The Electoral Commission’s investigation into Leave’s funding could halt Brexit

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The door to an exit from Brexit might just have opened Butterflies are beloved of writers of alternate history and counterfactuals. The notion that but for the eddies created by the meanderings of an individual butterfly, a hurricane would (or would not) have developed is as old as it is misleading; there are many butterflies, there are few hurricanes and there is precious little connection from the one to the other. It’s a curious example of an argument reduced to…

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Local By-Election Review : November 17th 2017

Local By-Election Review : November 17th 2017

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Kirkley on Waveney (Lab defence) Result: Con 217 (28% +7% on last time), Lab 374 (48% +12% on last time), Lib Dem 84 (11% no candidate last time), UKIP 78 (10% -10% on last time), Green 30 (4% -5% on last time) (No Independent candidate this time -15%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 157 (20%) on a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab St. Margaret’s on Waveney (Lab defence) Result: Con 487 (42% +12% on last time), Lab…

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Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear betting favourite to be next CON leader

Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear betting favourite to be next CON leader

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The history of the Tory party is that favourites rarely make it The latest betting chart from Betdata.io is above and shows Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear favourite to succeed TMay but a 14% chance is not that strong. He’s the third Tory to have been favourite since the general election and who knows others could follow. My first ever bet as a 16 year old (I went into a bookie wearing my school blazer and yes I was breaking the…

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TMay’s plan to enshrine the Brexit date in law looks set to fail

TMay’s plan to enshrine the Brexit date in law looks set to fail

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The big Brexit bill showdown at Westminster looks set to be TMay’s plan to enshrine the precise date and time of the exit in the Bill that’s going through Parliament at the moment. The Times is reporting that there was a stormy meeting with rebel Tory MPs earlier in the week and that this might have to be toned down even though perhaps 7 Labour MPs could back it. Those against say it would tie the Government’s hand in negotiations….

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New “media trust” polling finds the BBC top and the Sun bottom

New “media trust” polling finds the BBC top and the Sun bottom

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I’m sure people will correct meif I’m wrong but I think this polling is a first. We see from time to time several different forms of “trust” polling but as far as I can recall these latest findings from Ipsos MORI covering broadcast, the press and the internet is new. For those who follow politics closely the close relationship between media and politicians is something that is raised all the time especially the way the former can have a huge…

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So far so good. We might just get to the end of the week without a Cabinet exit

So far so good. We might just get to the end of the week without a Cabinet exit

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PaddyPower This is unlike each of the previous two weeks As BBC Radio 4’s the Now Show has observed TMay’s Cabinet had begun to look like Strictly with a much publicised departure in the previous two weeks. Well so far this week, and I know it is only Thursday, it looks as though TMay’s cabinet will remain intact. Her deputy and long-standing friend from her Oxford days, Damien Green, hangs on and my guess is that TMay will fight tooth…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Why aren’t the polls moving?

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Why aren’t the polls moving?

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The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Matt Singh to discuss the latest developments in Westminster (and beyond) and what the numbers tell us about what is going on. On this week’s show the team discuss why the polls are not moving despite the government’s struggles, what the public really think about Brexit and whether the Democrats might be on course to take Alabama in the upcoming U.S. Senate race. Follow this week’s…

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