politicalbetting.com – Page 862 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

And so to re-shuffle day unless the media’s being very badly misled

8/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

At least it’ll divert attention from the Toby Young Tweets I can’t remember a reshuffle that has been trailed as long this one. On Saturday David Herdson very rightly set out the reasons why Theresa May should not be holding a reshuffle so soon after the general election. There have been others, like former Cameron PR boss, Craig Oliver, saying that the worst thing that a PM can do is let everybody know that a reshuffle is happening. Far far…

Read More Read More

Betting on the year of Trump’s impeachment

7/1/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Democrats might not have the votes to convict but politically it might be helpful for them if the GOP vote to clear Trump. Paddy Power have a market up on the year that Donald Trump is impeached. The Paddy Power terms are very clear, this bet doesn’t require the Senate to vote to convict, just the House of Representatives to vote to successfully impeach The current polls indicate that the Democrats are on course to take the House later…

Read More Read More

It’s going to be a blue Monday for some cabinet ministers as Mrs May brings in a new order with a reshuffle

7/1/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/949767988772732928 Mrs May has an uncanny ability to go out of her way to step on banana skins Today’s Sunday Times report that Mrs May will reshuffle her cabinet on Monday and the junior ranks on Tuesday. Theresa May will move or sack at least six members of her cabinet in a reshuffle tomorrow designed to refresh her top team. An aide said she wanted to “make sure the government reflects the modern and diverse country” we live in. Boris…

Read More Read More

If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE17 gains from CON were in Leave areas?

6/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And how come that the majority of CON gains were in Remain areas? One of the ongoing narratives over the past year has been that Labour is particularly vulnerable on Brexit because about two-thirds of its constituencies voted leave in the referendum in June 2016. This has continued even though Labour made inroads into the Conservative base on June 8th and only lost 5 seats. What is interesting is looking at the referendum outcomes in the 28 seats that Labour…

Read More Read More

Why TMay should wait to reshuffle her cabinet

6/1/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

There is a good reason why PMs do not reshuffle only 6 months after a GE One of the easier predictions I thought I’d made in a twitter string earlier this week was that Theresa May wouldn’t engage in a voluntary major reshuffle of her cabinet this year. Within two hours of me doing so, the political twittersphere was alive with speculation and supposedly informed comment that just such a reshuffle was imminent – talk that Number Ten did little…

Read More Read More

After Toby Young the focus moves to some of BoJo’s writing about women and gay people

5/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Now BoJo's past articles being looked up with comments about 'hot totty' and 'tank-topped bumboys' https://t.co/83fp35KFxO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2018 Could it hurt his CON leadership chances? Latest CON leadership betting with BoJo in strong 2nd place pic.twitter.com/73bbWkuqDa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Michael Crick is right about appointments to the House of Lords

5/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

All this speculation about who might or might not be on the imminent new peers list is silly. Appointments to our legislature – FOR LIFE – ought to be an open process, subject to proper public and media scrutiny — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 5, 2018 If we are continuing with an appointed upper chamber then the process must be transparent With Mrs. May, who lost the CON majority last June, planning to bolster CON representation in the House of…

Read More Read More

Climate change denial is dead – but the fight for green votes is starting

5/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Donald Trump and the politics of climate change Donald Trump’s tweet that the snow-blasted US east coast would benefit from some global warming has reignited attention to his climate-change denial. But after a year of his presidency, it’s increasingly clear that, in terms of both public opinion and policy, rejection of climate science is a sideshow. Having a climate-change denier in the White House might seem like a triumph for people who want to stop action against global warming. Trump’s…

Read More Read More