If you are betting on the Trump exit markets be careful to check the precise terms of the bet

If you are betting on the Trump exit markets be careful to check the precise terms of the bet

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What happens, for instance, if the President dies in office? Inevitably the publication of the new book on the Trump White House Fire and Fury, by Michael Wolff has led to an enormous amount interest in betting on whether Mr trump Will survive his first term. This is currently, by a big margin, the busiest current political betting market and I would expect that to continue for some time. I’d also expect a lot of fluctuations as one new development…

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New academic research shows the wide differences between CON members and those who join other parties

New academic research shows the wide differences between CON members and those who join other parties

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Tory membership is older and more male biased Well over half of CON members want hanging restored   CON members want a tough line on immigration post-Brexit A new and comprehensive academic from Queen Mary, University of Lonodn, shows very sharp differences between CON members and those who belong to LAB/LD/SNP. This probably gives us a clearer idea of the make-up and views of CON party members – those who are likely to make the final choice for TMay’s successor…

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The Trump stories come thick and fast – this is the latest on what makes his life worth living

The Trump stories come thick and fast – this is the latest on what makes his life worth living

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What makes life worth living according to the Donald. Another great extract from the explosive new bookhttps://t.co/QN2gSU3Wt3 pic.twitter.com/Bxrr04M4a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2018 A year on current most active betting market – will Trump serve a full term? pic.twitter.com/KPvUcgPpp0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2018

YouGov’s latest Brexit tracker – the monthly average trend chart and latest party splits

YouGov’s latest Brexit tracker – the monthly average trend chart and latest party splits

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There really has been very little movement The final 2017 poll was for YouGov which included it’s regular Brexit tracker which PB has been reporting on ever since it was introduced shortly after the 2016 Brexit referendum. Some have criticised the phraseology of YouGov’s question with the suggestion that the term “in hindsight” is leading people to take the view the decision was wrong. Maybe – but that doesn’t shows up in the numbers with a very high proportion of…

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Challenges, challenges

Challenges, challenges

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It is perhaps too easy to assume that Western democracy, capitalism and liberalism will continue to thrive and prosper, certainly in the West, and that they will continue to act as a model for countries elsewhere. To counter any complacency, here are two long-term challenges which the Western model faces. Money or freedom? Paddy Ashdown said that the biggest mistake the West made in Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan was to fail to make the rule of law and security the…

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Re-shuffle speculation isn’t good for a Government and needs to be done as fast as possible

Re-shuffle speculation isn’t good for a Government and needs to be done as fast as possible

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Great for @ShippersUnbound to have such an informed reshuffle piece, but aides briefing on reshuffles causes mayhem – angry ministers start demanding private reassurances and counter-briefing begins. Soon someone asks: are sure we *really* want to do this? pic.twitter.com/E9f99pWHJ5 — Craig Oliver (@CraigOliver100) December 31, 2017 An opportunity, perhaps, for the next generation? One of the big pieces of political news over the holiday weekend was that Theresa May is said to be considering a reshuffle. This’ll be the first…

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The New Year starts with little cheer for any of the parties

The New Year starts with little cheer for any of the parties

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My big 2018 prediction: The stalemate will continue The above Wikipedia table shows all the final polls of 2017 with the exception of the latest YouGov which had LAB 2% ahead. So at the close of an extraordinary year in British politics which saw a shock General Election the signs are that the two main parties are very close to each other. Labour and its leader Mr Corbyn can take some satisfaction that it wasn’t annihilated, as many, though by…

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