politicalbetting.com – Page 848 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

EU/Europe: The issue that’s cost the last 3 CON PMs their jobs. Will TMay be next?

14/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Britain's interest in Europe appears to rise (and fall) when the Conservatives are in (and out) of government. @ipsosmori pic.twitter.com/DKlfcFIepI — Alistair McQueen (@HelloMcQueen) February 14, 2018 Polls show that concerns about Europe/EU are linked to whether the Tories are in power or not I like the above chart which makes a strong point that the EU becomes an issue amongst voters when the Tories are in power. The data comes from the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which those sampled…

Read More Read More

On the day of BoJo’s big Brexit speech the TMay successor betting edges further to an Etonian, but not the Foreign Secretary

14/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io Moggy is still dazzling the markets I had a thought before the Foreign Secretary’s big Brexit speech that there might be a case for putting a small amount on him on Betfair’s next Conservative leader market. Generally betting can respond to news coverage and clearly Mr Johnson is going to get a lot of that today. Only problem, looking at the chart, is that what betting movement there has been has not gone to Mr Johnson but to Mr…

Read More Read More

Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

14/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward. The problem here, of course, is that it is all totally hypothetical. Such things were said during the referendum campaign itself and Leaver voters, clearly, were not taken aback then. So why should we be surprised when more than a year before Brexit those who voted that way should feel…

Read More Read More

The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

13/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Council by-election vote share changes with previous winning party: (That UKIP-LDM swing tho…) pic.twitter.com/ENb5KEutC4 — PolitiStatsUK (@PolitiStatsUK) February 10, 2018 I’ve just come across the above chart which shows an interesting picture of vote movements in council by-elections since GE17. Clearly the collapse of UKIP is having a big impact and in almost every segment of seats, based on the defending party, LAB, CON and the LDs have moved forward. What is striking is that in the former UKIP seats…

Read More Read More

The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

13/2/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In some ways, the 2017 election went as expected for the Conservative party. When the election was called on 18 April, the seven polls that had been published so far that month had averaged 43.3%. When the election was held on 8 June, the Conservatives tallied 42.4%. Any soothsayer would have been happy with that degree of accuracy. This represented a net increase of 5.5% of the vote share on the 2015 result. Clearly the Conservative message gathered new recruits….

Read More Read More

Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

13/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This has only been picked up by YouGov With the apparent sharpish shifts that we’ve seen in recent days in the polls to the Conservatives there has, inevitably, been a lot of examination of the detailed data. One thing that’s featured is there’s said to have been a noticeable move by women voters from LAB to CON who, in recent times, have mostly leaned more to Labour. This has led to a lot of speculation as to why this has…

Read More Read More

As the Brexit process trundles on tonight’s PB cartoon

12/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Thanks once again to Nicholas Leonard and Helen Cochrane. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The star who plays a LAB MP in tonight’s new BBC political thriller is worried about state of the party

12/2/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Why Don Brind thinks he shouldn’t be David Mars is a Labour MP worried about the state of his party and at odds with his leader. Described as a “frustrated but hard-working member of the shadow cabinet” the central character in tonight’s BBC2 thriller Collateral “despairs at the state of the Labour Party and many of its policies .. he’s not afraid to be outspoken and on more than one occasion he finds himself in hot water with the party…

Read More Read More