Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s worst night of local elections since TMay became PM

Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s worst night of local elections since TMay became PM

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But LAB only makes net gain of one Farnworth on Bolton (Lab defence) Result: Con 153 (6% -3% on last time), Lab 969 (38% -10% on last time), Lib Dem 23 (1% -2% on last time), UKIP 169 (7% -29% on last time), Green 18 (1% -3% on last time), Residents 1,204 (47%, no candidate last time) Residents GAIN from Labour with a majority of 235 (9%) on a notional swing of 28.5% from Lab to Residents (9.5% from UKIP…

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Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

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At a dinner in Washington on Wednesday high profile Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, made what is being seen as the start of her bid to win the 2020 White House race. She announced that she is donating $5,000 to all 50 state Democratic parties in the US. She is also giving $15,000 to the national party. According to Politico:- “Warren also began laying out a national political argument, calling for the party to pick fights on consumer rights, guns, immigration…

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Until leave’s referendum expenses issues are sorted opponents will be able to cast doubt over Brexit’s legitimacy

Until leave’s referendum expenses issues are sorted opponents will be able to cast doubt over Brexit’s legitimacy

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The overnight news that the government have refused the Electoral Commission’s desire for the sources of the DUP’s pre 2017 donations to be revealed will only add to speculation that something is amiss. What was the source of the £425k that TMay’s “supply & confidence” partners were given ahead of the referendum? In the meantime the Electoral Commission have confirmed to me that two previously announced campaign funding investigations continue – one into Leave EU and the other into the…

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How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

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One of the less attractive aspects of British Euroscepticism (a keenly-contested category) is the willingness of many supporters to see the imminent collapse of the EU with every electoral development around the continent. Last year, Eurosceptics were salivating at the prospect of Geert Wilders’ party topping the poll in the Dutch election. Thwarted on that front, nearly nine out of ten Leave cats who expressed a preference decided that Marine Le Pen’s election as French president would be best for…

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Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s dramatic decision to call an election?

Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s dramatic decision to call an election?

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Based on these numbers a bigger majority was almost a certainty Almost whatever Mrs May does in the rest of her career she is going to go down as the PM who called an election when she had a majority and ended up without one. With the benefit of hindsight it looks like a massive mistake. Yet looking at the polling from the 6 weeks before her dramatic decision who could blame her for believing that this was a almost…

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Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU by March 29 2019

Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU by March 29 2019

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This market could get very busy – time to study the rules One thing about being a betting exchange like Betfair is that it has to stand in the middle between those who want to place bets and those who want to lay them. This means that in complex markets, which most political ones are, the rules have to be watertight to ensure that there are no arguments and disputes later. I had a period when I was advising Betfair…

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