For all TMay’s travails she continues to have a clear lead over Corbyn as “best PM”

For all TMay’s travails she continues to have a clear lead over Corbyn as “best PM”

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JC’s heady days of last June are becoming a distant memory Back in June, after Corbyn’s LAB got 4 seats closer to the Tory MP total than Gordon Brown’s party seven years earlier, there was a massive euphoria around the Labour leader. He could do no wrong and was reported to have said he expected to be PM by last Christmas. That, of course, didn’t happen and he then revised that to Christmas 2018. Then, in its first poll immediately…

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Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

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A bellwether for the November midterms What’s getting a lot of coverage in the US media at the moment is a big battle going on in the outskirts of Pittsburgh in a Special Congressional election caused by the resignation of the Republican incumbent over a sex scandal. It is said that millions of dollars has been spent and the Democrats are hoping they can take the district in an area that was natural Trump territory at WH2016. His margin was…

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New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expect a hammering in May

New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expect a hammering in May

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There’s a new 3,060 sample London poll from Lord Ashcroft in the Evening Standard which points to the blue team facing a struggle in the capital to hold onto to all the council that it runs . Three are highlighted, Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster, as being ones which could fall. The Tories could also struggle in SW London where it is defending Kingston and Richmond from the LDs. As ever there are lots of well-presented tables in the report and…

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If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all voters show photo ID

If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all voters show photo ID

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Financial Times Last time those without passports were most likely to vote leave At this stage last year the Tories were riding high. The party had just taken Copeland from LAB and all the polls had the Tories in the 40s with LAB in the 20s. In spite of her quite narrow CON majority Mrs. May was assuring the country that there would be no General Election until 2020 as laid down in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That did…

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Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date

Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date

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CNN obtained a tape of Trump at a closed-door fundraiser. He said this about China's president: "He's now president for life. President for life. And he's great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it's great. Maybe we'll give that a shot some day." https://t.co/FzLjVtlhl1 — Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) March 4, 2018 My expectation for a while has been health or assassins permitting Donald Trump’s tenure as President will end on January 20th 2025, and have been…

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Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him

Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him

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Some underestimate just how good a campaigner Jeremy Corbyn is and crucially he likes campaigning. There’s been quite a lot of comment about Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour not polling well enough against the Tories to ensure he becomes Prime Minister after the next general election. But my hypothesis is that the only time we should judge Corbyn is during a general election campaign. I’ve got this feeling those people are once again underestimating Corbyn because he’s not a conventional politician, he’s…

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It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories

It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories

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Serious analysis shows this is not happening One of the big electoral assumptions that continues to be made is that the decline of UKIP means that their votes shift almost an entirety to the Conservatives. We saw this thinking big time in a run up to the June 2016 general election when people were looking at the previous results from a seat and simply adding the UKIP share to the Tory total to come to some of you as to…

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