The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

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With Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen due to appear in court at 1900 BST in New York there’s been some movement on the “Will Trump complete a full first term” betting on Betfair. The whole atmosphere has changed since the surprise raid on Cohen’s offices last week and there’s a lot of speculation about what might have been found. It is reported that Stormy Daniels will be at the hearing. It is also being said that the President is much…

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TMay’s decision to back the Syria raid without Commons approval was in the face of public opinion

TMay’s decision to back the Syria raid without Commons approval was in the face of public opinion

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Will there be a price to be paid? Was TMay right to order strikes on Syria without MPs backing? SurvationYes 30%No 54%DK 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2018 Do you support the UK bombing of Syria? SurvationYes 36%No 40%DK 24% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2018 Why did Corbyn oppose Syria raids?(Survation) Genuine belief raids were wrong 40%Opportunist bid to damage TMay 40% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2018 The Russian Government has become a force…

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There’s the potential for Labour to get a long term polling boost because of their anti-semitism issues

There’s the potential for Labour to get a long term polling boost because of their anti-semitism issues

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Chart from polling conducted by YouGov for the Campaign against Antisemitism Older voters are more likely to endorse at least one anti-semitic statement, and remember older voters are more likely turn out to vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that Labour will take a long term hit in the polls because of the recent coverage of their anti-semitism issues but recently we’ve seen conventional wisdom proven to be very wrong, this might be another example. Before anyone accuses me saying older voters,…

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Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

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Every year, the politically engaged pore over the local elections, seeking to make deductions about what they mean for national politics. They do so undeterred by the fact that the relationship between local elections and national elections is not all that strong and they disregard the fact that local elections have an independent purpose from acting as a proxy national opinion poll. It’s usually a largely fruitless exercise that serves only to keep wonks occupied until Eurovision hits our screens….

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Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who would make the best PM

Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who would make the best PM

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Corbyn, as almost ever, trails behind This polling, from the latest YouGov, rather sums up British politics at the moment. When respondents were asked who would make the best prime minister 37% said Mrs May which is exactly the same number who said they didn’t know Neither of the main party leaders is able to show widespread support. On the party splits just 70% of current Labour voters opted for Mr Corbyn. Mrs May gets 90% of Tory ones. Of…

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MPs were right to oppose action in Syria in 2013 and may well be right now

MPs were right to oppose action in Syria in 2013 and may well be right now

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May must come to parliament and make her case Ed Miliband’s legacy to the world cannot just be measured by his inadvertently handing the Labour leadership to Jeremy Corbyn*. He also played a decisive role in preventing the UK joining proposed action against the Assad regime after Syria used chemical weapons in 2013. The effect of Britain withdrawing from planned operations – and doing so because of opposition in the legislature – was to cause Obama from drawing back from…

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Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

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After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on whether Trump will serve a full first term. The latest development with strong echoes of Watergate in the early 1970s is that Trump’s lawyer is known to have kept extensive sound recordings of those he had been in conversation with and the President’s allies are concerned…

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This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing

This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing

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St. Olaves on St. Edmundsbury (Lab defence) Result: Lab 365 (59% +27% on last time), Con 150 (24% -7% on last time), Ind 77 (12% -26% on last time), Lib Dem 31 (5%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 215 (35%) on a swing of 17% from Con to Lab (26.5% from Ind to Lab) Middleton, Cheney on South Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 391 (42% -22% on last time), Lib Dem 316 (34%, no candidate…

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