Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

Every year, the politically engaged pore over the local elections, seeking to make deductions about what they mean for national politics. They do so undeterred by the fact that the relationship between local elections and national elections is not all that strong and they disregard the fact that local elections have an independent purpose from acting as a proxy national opinion poll. It’s usually a largely fruitless exercise that serves only to keep wonks occupied until Eurovision hits our screens….

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Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who would make the best PM

Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who would make the best PM

Corbyn, as almost ever, trails behind This polling, from the latest YouGov, rather sums up British politics at the moment. When respondents were asked who would make the best prime minister 37% said Mrs May which is exactly the same number who said they didn’t know Neither of the main party leaders is able to show widespread support. On the party splits just 70% of current Labour voters opted for Mr Corbyn. Mrs May gets 90% of Tory ones. Of…

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MPs were right to oppose action in Syria in 2013 and may well be right now

MPs were right to oppose action in Syria in 2013 and may well be right now

May must come to parliament and make her case Ed Miliband’s legacy to the world cannot just be measured by his inadvertently handing the Labour leadership to Jeremy Corbyn*. He also played a decisive role in preventing the UK joining proposed action against the Assad regime after Syria used chemical weapons in 2013. The effect of Britain withdrawing from planned operations – and doing so because of opposition in the legislature – was to cause Obama from drawing back from…

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Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on whether Trump will serve a full first term. The latest development with strong echoes of Watergate in the early 1970s is that Trump’s lawyer is known to have kept extensive sound recordings of those he had been in conversation with and the President’s allies are concerned…

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This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing

This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing

St. Olaves on St. Edmundsbury (Lab defence) Result: Lab 365 (59% +27% on last time), Con 150 (24% -7% on last time), Ind 77 (12% -26% on last time), Lib Dem 31 (5%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 215 (35%) on a swing of 17% from Con to Lab (26.5% from Ind to Lab) Middleton, Cheney on South Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 391 (42% -22% on last time), Lib Dem 316 (34%, no candidate…

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If Mrs May does back military strikes against Syria it will be in the face of public opinion

If Mrs May does back military strikes against Syria it will be in the face of public opinion

There is no doubt that this is going to be a tricky one for the prime minister. After gathering of the consensus of nations in relation to the Salisbury attack she’s now in a position where there’s an expectation that Britain could support action against Syria particularly because of the use of chemical weapons. The first full national polling on the issue it is featured above in the YouGov charts and there is no doubt at all that the public…

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LAB plan to give free bus travel to those of 25 and younger

LAB plan to give free bus travel to those of 25 and younger

But is it more about municipalising buses than helping the young? It is being reported that Corbyn’s Labour is planning a big measure to help those under 25 if it should win the next election with transport costs. The plan is to offer a free bus pass to those in that age group which can be used on those services which are wholly or partly provided by public bodies. But there’s a catch. The objective appears to be more about…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast

Corbyn’s declining poll ratings, economic trust and who would vote for a new party anyway? On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss: 1)    Jeremy Corbyn’s declining poll ratings and whether Russia or the ongoing anti-Semitism row is more to blame. 2)    A new poll shows May and Hammond leading Corbyn and McDonnell +13 points on the economy. But is the economy as all-important politically as we once thought? 3)     David Miliand’s favourabilty ratings – how do they compare to his…

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