New YouGov finds Corbyn’s best PM ratings amongst the young holding firm but overall a post GE2017 low point

New YouGov finds Corbyn’s best PM ratings amongst the young holding firm but overall a post GE2017 low point

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This is the first published polling since last week’s local and the findings also include the latest voting intention numbers from the firm – CON 43%+1, LAB 38=, LD 9+2. My view is that non-voting intention numbers are probably a better way of measuring the political climate simply because those sampled are being asked for an opinion not a prediction how how they might or might not act in four years time. The young-old split has dominated polling for the…

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Heidi Alexander: Could she be the LAB mayoral nominee in 2020 so Sadiq can return to the Commons to challenge Corbyn?

Heidi Alexander: Could she be the LAB mayoral nominee in 2020 so Sadiq can return to the Commons to challenge Corbyn?

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There’s a fair bit of speculation doing the rounds about why ex-Lewisham E MP and former shadow health secretary, Heidi Alexander has quit her seat for a job with Sadiq Khan at City Hall. One theory that has been put to me is that she is being lined up as Labour’s candidate for the next London Mayoral election in 2020. This would free up Sadiq and allow him to seek a return to the Commons. Alexander has never been a…

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Ladbrokes open market on the battle within LAB for Lewisham East

Ladbrokes open market on the battle within LAB for Lewisham East

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The @LadPolitics betting on who'll be the LAB candidate in the Lewisham East by-election pic.twitter.com/2WjmQZMgEA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2018 It is not often that opportunities come up between general elections to be selected as candidate for a party that won the seat with a 21k majority. Lewisham East is a plum target and no doubt there are dozens of aspiring LAB hopefuls who fancy their chances. Unless there is a massive upheaval then the winner of the…

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New YouGov polling finds that ex-Londoners are more likely to vote LAB even after they’ve left

New YouGov polling finds that ex-Londoners are more likely to vote LAB even after they’ve left

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NEW POLL – Been working with @election_data looking at how ex-Londoners (those that moved out of London in past 5 years ) voted in the last couple of elections. TLDR – They swung towards Labour https://t.co/aL2xQh8hLU pic.twitter.com/ru4hw0cvAS — Chris Curtis (@chris__curtis) May 9, 2018 Moving out doesn’t make voters more inclined to the blues We all know that London votes in a very different pattern for the rest of the country with a much higher proportion of residents backing the…

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Losing the peace

Losing the peace

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The whiff of panic is palpable among what passes for the Leave intelligentsia. Two years ago they were airily asserting that the EU needed a deal more than Britain did and that it could be done over a long lunch, with the EU paying for the post-prandial cigars. Today, with the government boxed in on all sides, facing the prospect of either a cliff-edge Brexit for which next-to-no preparation has taken place or a customs arrangement that would hamstring Britain’s…

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How Corbyn’s LAB compares with predecessors on local election performance

How Corbyn’s LAB compares with predecessors on local election performance

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Chart from @markpack showing LAB leaders' average national vote share in local elections while in opposition pic.twitter.com/JbMepPJH4r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2018 The above chart was published earlier by the Lib Dem blogger Mark Pack who has compared the LAB party shares in all local elections while in opposition going back to Jim Callaghan’s time. It doesn’t make comfortable reading for those JC supporters who seem to think that their man can do no wrong. For all their…

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The early money goes on the LDs in Lewisham East

The early money goes on the LDs in Lewisham East

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The GE17 result from Lewisham East where there's to be a by-election. Looks like a LAB hold on reduced majority on low turnout pic.twitter.com/spDRfIkIyg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2018 The parliament’s first mainland by election in a seat that was 64.5% Repmain We have waited a long time but now we have news of the first parliamentary by-election on the mainland since the last June’s General Election. The seat is Lewisham East which has been made vacant by…

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The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

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A key part of election analysis each year are the two academic seat projections which seek to project party Council gains and losses. These play a big part in setting the media narrative over party expectations. Professions Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have been doing this for years and their projections are based on what has been happening in the local council by-elections in the run up to polling day. The other is from Oxford Professor Stephen Fisher who is…

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