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Teams from Remain areas once again dominated the Premiership and it will be even more the case next season

14/5/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Yet again sides from Leave areas get relegated The 2017/2018 English Premier League season came to an end yesterday and the above chart shows the final rankings linked to the Brexit referendum Remain shares. As can be seen the top half of the table is almost totally made up of sides from places where there was a high Remain vote while the bottom is dominated by team where Leave did best. With three Leave area sides being relegated to be…

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Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by election

13/5/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Backing Labour to get over 60% seems like value. Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote in the Lewisham East by election where Heidi Alexander polled 67.9% last year. It is clear that the Lib Dems are going make the focus of the by election Labour’s position(s) on Brexit but I’m not sure that’ll have much of an impact. So far Corbyn has managed to appear all things to all people when it comes to the…

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Going nuclear

13/5/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

ICYMI: Courtesy of the always resourceful @EIAgov, I got data back to 1949 of U.S. *net* petroleum imports (that's crude oil and refined products). The latest forecast is for 2019 net imports to drop to 1.5m b/d — lowest since 1958. #OOTT Full story here: https://t.co/itjliIuOzT pic.twitter.com/LXz1GvmULM — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 9, 2018 When Peter the Great died in 1725, the Russian empire covered an extent unimagined when he came to power. From his deathbed, he commanded his successors…

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Brexit exit date punters get nervous following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

12/5/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Mar 29 ’19 still favourite but not as strong as it was Yesterday’s ruling about Vote EU’s referendum expenses has inevitably led to those betting that the March 29th date will be achieved reviewing their positions. In recent weeks the market had been moving strongly towards it happening on time and it is still odds on. But as the Betdata chart, based on actual Betfair trades shows there has been movement. It simply adds to the uncertainty and allows some…

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Be wary of YouGov’s finding that Britain’s voting intentions is classless

12/5/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Queues like I've never seen out the polling station in hackney pic.twitter.com/oDUBM7wBVj — Tom Clark (@prospect_clark) June 23, 2016 It isn’t new, and it isn’t really backed up by other pollsters or elections Class is supposed to define British politics. Perhaps that explains the flurry of surprise yesterday when YouGov’s latest poll gave the Conservatives a 3% lead among the C2DE group (43-40-7 among the main parties), and showed Labour doing worse with them than with the ABC1s (43-37-11). We…

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The pollster that got GE2017 most right now has CON in the lead

11/5/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Trend chart of Survation voting intention polls since GE17 pic.twitter.com/Eted64NFaQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2018 Tories take the lead with Survation – the pollster that's been showing the best figures for LABCON 41% +1 LAB 40% = LD 8% -1 UKIP 3% = SNP 3% = GRE 2% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2018 Ever since the general election when Survation came closest to getting the final outcome right there has been a special regard for…

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‘Peak Corbyn’ is a myth providing false reassurance to his opponents

11/5/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Last week’s local elections were underwhelming for Labour, writes Keiran Pedley but that does not mean Labour is heading for defeat. As the dust settles on the 2018 local elections, it is clear that Labour did not hit the heights that they hoped to hit. A very strong showing in London offset somewhat by a frustrating lack of progress for the party in the rest of the country. The projected national vote share produced by the BBC suggested a tie,…

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If Bercow does stand down then Lindsay Hoyle, surely, will be his successor

10/5/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

He’s a 66% chance on Betfair With John Bercow attending the funeral of ex-speaker, Michael Martin, it was down to deputy, Lindsay Hoyle to handle yesterday’s PMQs and the above clip shows what a positive reception he got. While part of this is down to how the incumbent is viewed by some MPs a lot of it was recognition that Hoyle is very good at handling the business of the House – something that’s recognised by all parties. Many observed…

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