politicalbetting.com – Page 810 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

LAB continues to have double digit lead on the NHS but the gap is narrowing

17/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Will TMay’s latest move make it even better for her? A few weeks ago at PMQs Jeremy Corbyn reminded the PM that in the 1947/48 period when the NHS legislation was going through parliament it had been opposed by the Tories. That such a line can still resonate 70 years on is really quite remarkable and highlights the ongoing vulnerability that the Conservatives have on the National Health Service. The National Health Service has always been a LAB issue and…

Read More Read More

Tipping point. Why Scotland’s ultimate independence now looks inevitable

17/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Wednesday was not one of those days when it was difficult to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance. The SNP launched a choreographed flounce from the House of Commons following a spat between their leader Ian Blackford and the Speaker over the treatment of Scotland’s position in the Brexit debates. The government was quick to accuse the SNP of pulling a stunt and of manufacturing discontent. It’s certainly true that the SNP haven’t exactly…

Read More Read More

Lady Chope and their daughter must be so proud of Sir Christopher

16/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Is TMay having second thoughts about giving him a knighthood? One thing’s for sure – the MP for Christchurch who was knighted in the last New Year’s Honours, is going to get a lot more media coverage following his blocking on Friday of the private member’s bill to stop what’s known as upskirting. It is being argued on his behalf that this was more than about the issue itself but that he, and fellow CON MP, Phillip Davies took their…

Read More Read More

Britain’s brittle stalemate

16/6/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Lewisham East reveals the essential weakness of all three national parties Interpreting by-election results is very much in the eye of the beholder. Some, it’s true, are unambiguous in their outcome for one party or another. Lewisham East is not one such. Labour can happily chalk up that they got the job done without fuss. They won the seat and no clear challenger arose. However, it was nothing like a ringing endorsement. The turnout was dire (only the 16th occasion…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Review : June 14th 2018

15/6/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Town on Doncaster (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,084 (47% +8% on last time), Yorkshire 570 (25% -1% on last time), Green 294 (13% -1% on last time), Conservative 260 (11% -11% on last time), Liberal Democrat 66 (3%, no candidate last time), Independent 43 (2%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 514 (22%) on a swing of 4.5% from Yorkshire to Labour London Bridge and West Bermondsey on Southwark (New wards) Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats…

Read More Read More

Lewisham East: Five take aways

15/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The result is almost exactly in line with the LDs canvas projection issued on Monday afternoon. This had LAB 49, LD 25, CON 17. https://t.co/zTGmdohYEq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2018 Voters tend to avoid avoidable by-elections The most striking statistic from the overnight result was the turnout which dropped from 69% at the general election just over a year ago to 33% yesterday. This is one of the biggest falls compared with the previous General Election on record…

Read More Read More

The lastest Lewisham East odds and expectations

14/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

With less than 2 hours of voting left the Lewisham East by election and an easy Labour hold looks like the market expectation with the Lib Dems in second. I wonder if the value is backing the turnout at sub 30% at 12/1 pic.twitter.com/nGs9m3wfEk — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2018 If there's a Lab to LD swing in Lewisham East then that's not the sort of performance that indicates Labour are on course to form the next government. — TSE…

Read More Read More

The Worst Economic Statistic?

14/6/2018 robert Comments 0 Comment

There are many economic statistics, some broadly useful, others bizarrely esoteric. Only one manages to be both useless and dangerous. Worse: it’s trumpeted by journalists, so you may even have been taken in yourself. Welcome to the worst economic statistic. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as MarketWarbles follow him by clicking the follow button below Follow @marketwarbles Tweet