Fighting the last but one war. The final Brexit battle approaches

Fighting the last but one war. The final Brexit battle approaches

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=8JOpPNra4bw That didn’t take long.  As soon as the Germans were eliminated, it suddenly occurred to the entire British media that “VAR” could, if you squinted at it hard enough, be read as if it were a German pronunciation of the word “war”.  Amazing, I know.  So “Don’t mention the VAR” made its way through the lower reaches of the press and swam upstream as far as the Times and the Telegraph.  Could you have imagined such wit?  The nation…

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BoJo – the betting favourite with a record of disappointing punters

BoJo – the betting favourite with a record of disappointing punters

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In what became the Conservative Leadership 2016, Boris Johnson was not, as we know, the winning outcome. Indeed he did not put his name forward as a candidate. The highest Betfair Exchange odds were 55% on the day after the Brexit referendum. In what became the Prime Minister after Cameron market, Johnson didn’t win yet on the Betfair Exchange next PM market on June 24th 2016 his top price rated his chances at 60%. In the currently-live market Prime Minister…

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Trump’s big deal: the Supreme Court

Trump’s big deal: the Supreme Court

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Wikimedia Commons November permitting, buying off evangelicals with nominations could change the future of America Donald Trump regards himself as the great deal-maker. As president, there’s not an awful lot of evidence to support his contention but then he’s never much been one for being overly worried about the evidence. Nearly a year and a half into his term, there’s no wall, nor any realistic prospect of one, his immigration reforms have resulted in concentration camps for children separated from…

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Former long-standing favourite to succeed TMay, Moggsy now down in third place in the betting

Former long-standing favourite to succeed TMay, Moggsy now down in third place in the betting

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Betdata.io More movement on the betting market on who will succeed TMay. For a long period over the past nine months the favourite has been the multi-millionaire who has never been a minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg. The strong pro-Brexiteer who attracted a lot of media attention has been slipping out of favour with punters as can be seen in the chart. He follows fellow old Etonican, “fuck Business” Boris who previously was the long-term favourite. The one unknown with this market…

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June 2018 Local By-Election Summary

June 2018 Local By-Election Summary

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June 2018 Monthly Summary Conservatives 7,657 votes (40.22% -0.91% on last time) winning 8 seats (-2 seats on last time) Labour 4,716 votes (24.77% +5.10% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes (15.75% +7.59% on last time) winning 4 seats (+3 seats on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,291 votes (6.78% -5.69% on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time) Local Independents 1,089 votes (5.72% +0.98% on last…

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Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold 41 of the 59 seats

Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold 41 of the 59 seats

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But the low-hanging fruit for Corbyn’s party is still there There is a new Scottish poll out this morning and the picture remains gloomy for LAB. As can be seen Panelbase still has the party in third place behind, of course, the SNP and the Conservatives. What makes this particularly disappointing for Labour is that for decades Scotland was the bedrock of the party’a support throughout the UK and its dominance underpinned its parliamentary position. So at both 2005 and…

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Opposition leaders who like Corbyn lose their first General Election hardly ever make it to Prime Minister

Opposition leaders who like Corbyn lose their first General Election hardly ever make it to Prime Minister

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The task for Corbyn is to emulate Ted Heath One of the relatively unusual features of last year’s general election was that the losing main party leader did not quit or was forced out of his job in the aftermath of defeat. This was in the sharp contrast to: Ed Miliband (GE2015) Gordon Brown (GE2010) Michael Howard (GE2005) William Hague (GE2001) John Major (GE1997) Neil kinnock (GE1992) Michael Foot (GE1983) James Callaghan (GE1979) Edward Heath (GE1974 – Oct). In fact…

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So, this errr… Target2 thing. What is it, and why is it spiking, and should I care?

So, this errr… Target2 thing. What is it, and why is it spiking, and should I care?

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https://youtu.be/yLTg1aatqHs With the election of the Lega Nord and Five Star Movement in Italy, Target2 imbalances are growing again. The gap between the creditor nations (mostly Germany and the Netherlands) and the debtors (the PIIGS, less Ireland) is now back at levels last seen at the height of the Eurozone crisis. But wait. What are Target2 balances? Are they the result of Germany’s enormous current account surplus, or is there something else at work? More importantly, should you care about…

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