NEW EMERGENCY PB / POLLING MATTERS PODCAST: Bye Bye Boris and what happens next?

NEW EMERGENCY PB / POLLING MATTERS PODCAST: Bye Bye Boris and what happens next?

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On a special episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss a momentous 24 hours in Westminster that has seen both David Davis and Boris Johnson resign. Keiran and Leo ask what happens next and look at what polling of Tory members by YouGov tells us about the future direction of the Conservative Party and who might come to lead it. Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

A better ‘ole

A better ‘ole

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Reflections on the dramatic events When I was a child, we used to visit my maternal grandparents most Sundays.  I learned my love of card games and Scrabble there, including the importance of seating: my grandpa would cheat to ensure my grandma won (she was a shocking loser and he knew which side his bread was buttered).  Sunday tea was an institution, my grandma slipping Ben her fat golden Labrador little treats from her plate when she thought no one…

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It looks as though TMay could be facing a confidence vote

It looks as though TMay could be facing a confidence vote

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Whispers Tory MP s have reached the magic number of the 48 letters required to force a confidence vote – no way of knowing yet if true – meeting at 5.30 — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 9, 2018 On Betfair she’s odds-on to go this year What a day with “Fuck Business” Johnson quitting as Foreign Secretary and reports now that the required total of 48 CON MPs to demand a confidence vote on TMay has been reached. The betting…

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PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules

PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules

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If TMay loses a confidence vote then she can’t be a contender It is perhaps not surprising given the scale of the story at the time was but whenever people think of Conservative leadership contests and disposal of incumbents they look back to 1990 when Mrs Thatcher had to depart. Hence that is the only reason, I suggest, that Paddy Power in the latest range of markets following the David Davis resignation have included Theresa May as a potential candidate…

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David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely

David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely

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He was the 4/1 favourite for next exit The big UK political news overnight is that the BrexSec and former favourite to succeed TMay, David Davis, has resigned as a minister following his disagreement with the PM’s approach to Brexit. Another of his ministers, Steve Baker, has gone with him. This plunges the party into its biggest crisis since Mrs. May failed to hang onto to the Tory majority in June last year. The move happened just before midnight and…

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There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

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Sources confirm letters calling for vote of confidence in @theresa_may leadership going in to @Graham__Brady, chair of 1922. Tory Brexiters very unhappy – accuse PM of traducing those who voted to leave EU. This appears to be spontaneous, not coralled by ERG & @Jacob_Rees_Mogg — Robert Peston (@Peston) July 8, 2018 So far Peston hasn’t moved the PM exit betting ITV’s Political Editor, Robert Preston, is Tweeting that there might be a confidence move about to take place against TMay….

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The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

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For the last year or so, one of my favourite betting markets has been the market on Betfair on whether Britain will leave the EU by 11pm on 29 March 2019.  I wrote about it in February and it has been a market that I have returned to regularly over the intervening months.  The price on Yes, Britain will officially leave by that date has shortened considerably since February and as I write last traded at 1.83.  I still think…

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