YouGov finds TMay rated about the same as Major, ahead of Blair and Brown but behind Cameron

YouGov finds TMay rated about the same as Major, ahead of Blair and Brown but behind Cameron

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Above is from some new polling just issued by YouGov in which those surveyed were asked to rate TMay against the three preceding PMs. The Blair figures shows, I’d suggest, the continuing legacy of the Iraq war. It is perhaps worth noting that he is the only one being compared who led his party to sustainable Commons majorities. In electoral terms he is also the most successful leader in his party’s history and there are no matches in modern time…

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House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

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The three states, Michigan,Minnesota and Wisconsin were surveyed by NBC News/Marist polls and are,of course, in the part of the US where Trump very much exceeded expectations at WH2016. It was, of course, the mid-west where Trump won the presidency and state polling from here is going to be looked at very closely. If these do represent represent current opinion then the Republicans are going to struggle in November’s midterm elections when all seats in the House of Representatives are…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast – Episode 136 Deal or no deal Brexit, support for the far-right and the death penalty and more

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast – Episode 136 Deal or no deal Brexit, support for the far-right and the death penalty and more

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the levels of public support for a no-deal Brexit and how that may factor into decisions in Westminster. Also on the podcast, the duo look at polling on support for the far-right and other potential new parties by YouGov as well as public support for the death penalty in light of Sajid Javid’s decision not to seek assurances that suspected British Jihadis will not face…

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The efforts to undermine Obamacare – the soft underbelly of Trump’s electoral position

The efforts to undermine Obamacare – the soft underbelly of Trump’s electoral position

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Taking away what’s become an entitlement is politically dangerous On the first anniversary of the Senate defeat of Trump’s health care repeal,and just three months before the crucial midterm elections, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds a majority of voters want to support candidates for Congress who oppose repealing the Affordable Care Act. This was brought in under Obama in 2010 and has provided health provision for millions of Americans. By 56% to 40% those sampled said they’d support…

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Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

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Betdata.io The confidence motion threat was all piss and wind from the Brexiteers Today has been a very important milestone because Parliament has risen for the summer recess and Mrs May is still Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Giving the a long time table of a Conservative leadership election it is hard to see how Mrs May can be ousted and for a successor to be in place in 2018. The chances are now that her exit…

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Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

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Corbyn is going full Trump: "… a "build it in Britain" speech, in which Mr Corbyn will also attack the use of "cheap labour from abroad" and demand government contracts are kept in Britain instead of being given to "companies outside the UK".https://t.co/Jee3gZ2n3R — David Hirsh (@DavidHirsh) July 24, 2018

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

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Here's the polling for the primary populist right party in 15 western European countries from 2005 to June 2018 (part of upcoming paper by @AndrewPGeddes and me). Draw your own conclusions ? pic.twitter.com/1eqS9bF2wr — James Dennison (@JamesRDennison) July 19, 2018 I am one of the 42% @YouGov https://t.co/2Z42Y06TFv pic.twitter.com/9zPH35Skgr — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 23, 2018 A spectre is haunting Europe: the spectre of populism. All the powers of old Europe has entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this…

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