On Betfair punters make it a 20% chance that Corbyn won’t last the year

On Betfair punters make it a 20% chance that Corbyn won’t last the year

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Corbyn’s constant changes of his story have made matters worse One betting market which we’ve never reported on has been the Betfair’s year of Corbyn’s departure. This isn’t so surprising for following his reelection by a whopping margin 2 years ago the Labour leader has looked totally secure. This of course has been helped by the overwhelming support he appears to have from the membership and there has been virtually nothing his detractors can do to shift him. That might…

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Corbyn got through GE2017 without his back-story becoming an issue – 14 months on things are different

Corbyn got through GE2017 without his back-story becoming an issue – 14 months on things are different

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https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1028990259848204288 Where the danger to Corbyn really lies Ever since his surprise victory in the 2015 leadership contest Corbyn’s detractors have consistently argued that his backstory and some of the relationships and things he has done over the past 30 years would be a major encumbrances in an election campaign. In spite of considerable efforts by the Tories and part of the national media somehow this didn’t resonate fourteen months ago but a direct consequence of the anti-semitism role within…

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Men of Honour?

Men of Honour?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJxxQM7GxJA In Peter Hennessey’s Reflections radio series, Margaret Beckett was asked why she abandoned the Catholic faith of her childhood.  The event which crystallised her disenchantment was John Freeman asking Cardinal Heenan what one word summed up the Church.  Margaret waited, expecting something like “charity”or “love”. The Cardinal’s answer was “Authority”. Perhaps not a surprising answer for an institution long steeped in hierarchy and an acute sense of its own magisterium.  But in light of the revelations over recent years of…

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The end of an era. Sir Paul Dacre is said to have edited his last Daily Mail

The end of an era. Sir Paul Dacre is said to have edited his last Daily Mail

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We can expect fewer powerful pro-Brexit front pages like these? The biggest political development over the weekend, I’d suggest, was the report in the Observer about the replacement of Paul Dacre as Daily Mail editor with the Geordie Gregg, of the Mail on Sunday, who has taken a totally different view of the referendum outcome. Gregg will start in September a couple of months earlier than planned and it is hard to see, given his views, him carrying on with…

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We need to talk about Brandon Lewis

We need to talk about Brandon Lewis

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The fallout from Boris Johnson’s insults towards women who wear the burqa and niqab might end up putting the kibosh on his leadership ambitions it may also end up being sub-optimal for the prospects of Brandon Lewis. The Mail on Sunday report  When Mr Lewis called for the former Foreign Secretary to apologise for the remarks – forcing the Prime Minister to echo his call – he triggered a furious backlash from Mr Johnson’s supporters.  Their anger intensified when the…

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Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

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Why I’m betting on no leadership contest in 2018. Paddy Power’s market on whether there will be a Tory leadership contest in 2018 intrigues me. I’ve confirmed with them the precise terms of this bet. A vote of no confidence being called will not be enough, what needs to happen is for either Mrs May to lose a vote of confidence or resign and the Chairman of the 1922 committee to start accepting nominations for Mrs May’s successor. After Chequers…

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This poll just about sums Brexit up – 60% don’t care what happens over Brexit they just want it to be over

This poll just about sums Brexit up – 60% don’t care what happens over Brexit they just want it to be over

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As the issue rolls on and on, do you just want #Brexit to be finished? From yesterday's @BBCWestminHour with @EllieJPrice, six out of ten agreed that they no longer care how or when we leave – they just want it over and done with. That rises to three quarters of leavers. pic.twitter.com/JJGUcbfdN7 — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) August 6, 2018 This is good news for TMay I’m starting to like some of the original output from DeltaPoll – the new pollster…

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PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

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The US runs a trade deficit with China of $375bn. It’s a staggering number, larger than the economies of Ireland or Israel. Little wonder than Donald Trump frets that the US is being taken advantage of. But how meaningful are bilateral trade numbers anyway? Should governments aim to balance volumes of trade with other countries, or is it all a bit irrelevant? And if you impose tariffs on countries with whom you have deficits, will your overall balance of trade…

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