An outlier or the a sign of the trend? One of the problems with polling analysis is that the outliers tend to get much more publicity and attention than those that are broadly in line with everybody else. We saw that with the latest YouGov poll showeding Labour down at its lowest level since the general election four Points behind the Conservatives. So I thought it a good idea to try to put it into context by reproducing the latest…
Let me let you in on a dirty secret. An awful lot of lawyers are terrified of maths. They can make words sit up and beg, but put them in front of a formula and they quiver. When the rate of VAT rose to 20%, many lawyers were privately delighted because the calculation was so much easier to do. Nevertheless, I have maths ahead. You have been warned. The Conservative party leadership race is conducted under unusual rules. The Parliamentary…
Corbyn’s constant changes of his story have made matters worse One betting market which we’ve never reported on has been the Betfair’s year of Corbyn’s departure. This isn’t so surprising for following his reelection by a whopping margin 2 years ago the Labour leader has looked totally secure. This of course has been helped by the overwhelming support he appears to have from the membership and there has been virtually nothing his detractors can do to shift him. That might…
https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1028990259848204288 Where the danger to Corbyn really lies Ever since his surprise victory in the 2015 leadership contest Corbyn’s detractors have consistently argued that his backstory and some of the relationships and things he has done over the past 30 years would be a major encumbrances in an election campaign. In spite of considerable efforts by the Tories and part of the national media somehow this didn’t resonate fourteen months ago but a direct consequence of the anti-semitism role within…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJxxQM7GxJA In Peter Hennessey’s Reflections radio series, Margaret Beckett was asked why she abandoned the Catholic faith of her childhood. The event which crystallised her disenchantment was John Freeman asking Cardinal Heenan what one word summed up the Church. Margaret waited, expecting something like “charity”or “love”. The Cardinal’s answer was “Authority”. Perhaps not a surprising answer for an institution long steeped in hierarchy and an acute sense of its own magisterium. But in light of the revelations over recent years of…
We can expect fewer powerful pro-Brexit front pages like these? The biggest political development over the weekend, I’d suggest, was the report in the Observer about the replacement of Paul Dacre as Daily Mail editor with the Geordie Gregg, of the Mail on Sunday, who has taken a totally different view of the referendum outcome. Gregg will start in September a couple of months earlier than planned and it is hard to see, given his views, him carrying on with…
The fallout from Boris Johnson’s insults towards women who wear the burqa and niqab might end up putting the kibosh on his leadership ambitions it may also end up being sub-optimal for the prospects of Brandon Lewis. The Mail on Sunday report When Mr Lewis called for the former Foreign Secretary to apologise for the remarks – forcing the Prime Minister to echo his call – he triggered a furious backlash from Mr Johnson’s supporters. Their anger intensified when the…
Why I’m betting on no leadership contest in 2018. Paddy Power’s market on whether there will be a Tory leadership contest in 2018 intrigues me. I’ve confirmed with them the precise terms of this bet. A vote of no confidence being called will not be enough, what needs to happen is for either Mrs May to lose a vote of confidence or resign and the Chairman of the 1922 committee to start accepting nominations for Mrs May’s successor. After Chequers…