Tonight the results from what looks like the final major electoral test before Brexit

Tonight the results from what looks like the final major electoral test before Brexit

How will the big picture compare with the polls? Although large parts of the UK do not have elections today this, unless something exceptional happens, will be the last big electoral test before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29th next year. Because of the nature of the seats that are being fought it is expected that Labour will do very well. A total of 42% of them are in London which is very good territory for…

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A big question today is how many voters can’t cast their ballots because they don’t have the required ID

A big question today is how many voters can’t cast their ballots because they don’t have the required ID

Just been to vote. Was informed that two people had already turned up without ID this morning so had been unable to vote. Very worrying and backs up all the evidence that the voter ID pilot in Bromley is plain wrong. — Ellie Reeves (@elliereeves) May 3, 2018 This is also happening in Swindon Borough where some who have none of the approved ID have also not received their ballot cards. — Sarah Bowles (@sarahbowlesuk) May 3, 2018 In none…

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Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

NEW HAMPSHIREIf the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were [see below] …Warren 26%Biden 20%Sanders 13%Booker 8%Harris 4%Patrick 4%Gillibrand 2%McAuliffe 2%Unsure 21%(Suffolk U. Poll, Democratic primary voters, 4/26-30/18) — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) May 2, 2018 An early setback for Bernie & his enthusiastic fans? Although the first primary of the next White House Race will not be held for another 20 months or so we have the first poll out overnight on the Democratic nomination and this,…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

On this week’s podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn’s personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling. The podcast then turns to Rudd’s resignation this week, with an in-depth look at public opinion on her departure and immigration more generally. Topics covered include whether the…

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Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader

Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader

    Considering how fondly it is remembered as a children’s book, The Hobbit has a lot of gore in it.  (The alert will already have figured out that I’m going to be talking about Conservative leadership manoeuvrings.)  Bilbo Baggins is threatened with imminent devourment on five separate occasions, which would make even the most gung-ho adventurer feel put out.  On the first of these occasions, he has been captured by trolls.  They quiz him about whether there are others…

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The Tories go into Thursday’s locals in a much better national polling position than when the seats were last fought in 2014

The Tories go into Thursday’s locals in a much better national polling position than when the seats were last fought in 2014

TMay’s Tories doing better over Corbyn’s LAB than Cameron’s party was doing over EdM’s Given that context is everything I thought it might be useful to show the national polling gap between the main two parties this year compared with what it was in 2014 when most of the seats up on Thursday will last fought. Rather than show every single poll that was carried out in April 2014 and this month I have taken the average gap tha the…

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The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat

The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat

Harry Hayfield on Thursday’s West Tyrone Parliamentary By-Election (Sinn Fein defence) This by-election is the 33rd by-election since the 2010 general election and is the 25th occasion when a by-election has been caused by an MP resigning their seat (75%). This compares with the eight years before then (2002 – 2010) when out of 21 by-elections 11 were caused by resigning MP’s (52%) and the reason for this? Fewer and fewer MP’s are dying in office. Indeed during the 1966…

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