The Conservatives must again make the case for private enterprise, profit, choice and competition

The Conservatives must again make the case for private enterprise, profit, choice and competition

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1929 Conservative poster The risk is an unwitting drift into a new left-of-centre consensus Some revolutions are begun by small steps; others are revealed by them. Of itself, Chris Grayling’s announcement this week that the government was bringing the East Coast Mainline back into public ownership, was nothing unusual. It is, after all, the third time in the 20 years of the privatised era that the East Coast franchise has failed. Furthermore, for the government, the return to state-run operations…

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Local By-Election Review : May 17th 2018

Local By-Election Review : May 17th 2018

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Skerton West on Lancaster (Lab defence) Result: Lab 587 (58% +21% on last time), Con 279 (27% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 95 (9%, Green 59 (6% -3% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -20%, No Ind candidate this time -7%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 308 (31%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lab University and Scotsforth Rural on Lancaster (Lab and Green defence) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour 518, 423 (48% +13%…

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Bercow needs to take inspiration from Arsene Wenger’s exit from Arsenal

Bercow needs to take inspiration from Arsene Wenger’s exit from Arsenal

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Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that he’ll be be out this year It hasn’t been the best of periods for Commons Speaker, John Bercow, who now finds himself embroiled in a row of what he might or might not have said about Andrea Leadsom. This follows the bullying allegations that have been aired a lot recently. The big issue for prospective punters is whether he’s reached a point where his position is untenable and I don’t think we are there yet….

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The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

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What does this say about current national polling? It is not often we get a real election against which we can compare final polls and this month’s London elections provided one such opportunity. The LAB/CON/LD shares in the final polls from YouGov and Survation are shown in the chart and compared with the overall result. As can be seen both pollsters had LAB at 51% which compared the 47% that actually happened. Survation got the Tories spot on while YouGov…

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Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this year

Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this year

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With all the machinations that are going on within the cabinet over the divisions on Brexit it is perhaps no wonder that here has been renewed interest on betting that she’ll be out this year. The Betdata.io chart above shows the movement over the past month with next year, presumably post-Brexit, continuing to be the favourite. Certainly Mrs. May has a huge challenge dealing with the increasing number of Brexit issues and this hasn’t been helped by Corbyn’s new approach…

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On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs May launched the Conservative manifesto

On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs May launched the Conservative manifesto

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The anniversary of the #DementiaTax On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs. May was enjoying huge leads in the polls as she travelled to key Tory target of Halifax (LAB GE2015 majority 428) to launch the Conservative manifesto. The polling in that week was pointing to a landslide. GfK and ICM had her party 20% ahead with leads of 18% by Kantar and 15% by Ipsos-MORI. The spread betting markets had a CON “buy” level of…

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Tonight’s NEW PB/ Polling Matters podcast: What drives how we vote + public opinion on a customs union & a united Ireland

Tonight’s NEW PB/ Polling Matters podcast: What drives how we vote + public opinion on a customs union & a united Ireland

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the demographic and ideological trends shaping our politics and how they drive voting intention. Keiran and Leo also look at public opinion on customs unions and the impact that polling is having on Theresa May’s calculations when it comes to Northern Ireland. Follow this week’s guests @keiranpedley @leobarasi

Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot not Moggsy or BoJo

Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot not Moggsy or BoJo

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Being seen to be successful ministers will be crucial Ever since last June when Theresa May lost the Conservative Party its majority there has always been a chance of a leadership contest. We have had repeated stories about MPs being ready to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence vote. The fact that this has not materialised so far doesn’t mean it is not going to happen. In view of the febrile state of the…

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