politicalbetting.com – Page 789 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

5/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Our #issuesindex has been running since 1974 – we rarely add new items unless there’s a clear change – this month in the top ten for the first time – lack of faith in government/politicians…(spontaneously mentioned by respondents). Data out tomorrow — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 29, 2018 We also have a brand new entrant for the top ten – 12% say "lack of faith in govt/politics" is a big problem. This is our first new code since 2014 and…

Read More Read More

Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Corbyn move from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week

4/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes: Chris Williamson is now 33/1 to become the next Labour leader, in from 100/1 last week pic.twitter.com/wp1El4c8vn — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2018 Why I’m not jumping aboard on this betting bandwagon The major betting news today is the odds of Derby North MP Chris Williamson tumbling from 100/1 last week to 33/1 today. My primary reason for not backing Williamson is that if someone from the Corbynite wing of the party succeeds they will need explicit public…

Read More Read More

May v Corbyn: Who’ll go first?

4/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power’s market on who will cease to be leader first, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn is an intriguing one. I can understand why Mrs May is the overwhelming favourite but I wonder if the value might be with Jeremy Corbyn for the following reasons. I maybe wrong on this but I feel we’ve reached a tipping point with Jeremy Corbyn these last few weeks following those comments about British Zionists, in the type of language the far right often…

Read More Read More

Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

3/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Please indulge me as I take a minute today to complain about poll questions that ask people whether they'd be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if the candidate did X thing. — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 Things people are generally bad at:-explaining how they decide their votes-entertaining counterfactuals-understanding probability This asks them to do all three! — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 But the even bigger problem is that people aren't going to…

Read More Read More

The Dangers of Polite Demagogues

3/9/2018 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The cartoonist known as Pont is perhaps best remembered (if at all) for his Punch series on the English character. The cartoons depict a certain type of pre-war English upper middle class life (dressing for dinner, hunting, country weekends, clubland, patient, stoic enjoyment of outdoor pursuits, bewilderment at Abroad and the need to Keep up Standards, often to the point of absurdity) laced with endearing eccentricity. It is a life which has largely disappeared, save for those (often foreigners) wealthy enough…

Read More Read More

Cat meet pigeons

2/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Sunday TIMES: “May and Corbyn face double coup” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/qD7n75C0Mj — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) September 1, 2018 The best advice from an MP going into this autumn? “Buckle up.” The @ObserverUK Big read on the plotting, chaos and intrigue that lies ahead…https://t.co/FoTxZS9vAs pic.twitter.com/3bqD6p5vRZ — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) September 2, 2018 Those hoping for a quiet Autumn on the politics front are set to be disappointed. Just when you thought politics couldn’t get any more exciting several newspapers are reporting…

Read More Read More

PB Video Analysis: What Chance a US-UK Free Trade Deal

2/9/2018 robert Comments 0 Comment

Brexit is approaching. And with it – in President Trump’s mind – comes an opportunity for a transatlantic free trade deal, bringing together the World’s two largest English speaking democracies. Atlantacists in Britain are excited, those who believe we should be supping with the Europeans are scared. But before the trigger is pulled, what are the compromises that would be needed to put together a US-UK free trade deal? Could Dr Liam Fox get something in place before the 2020…

Read More Read More

The affairs of state. How the personal can become very political indeed

1/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Love him or loathe him, Alex Salmond is one of the towering political figures of the age. He has taken the cause of Scottish independence from a fringe idea to one of the great themes of Scottish and indeed British politics. With a ready wit and an unsurpassable sense of his own importance, he has assembled an army of Nats on and offline, all straining to be unyoked from the United Kingdom. This last week, Scottish politics has been convulsed…

Read More Read More