Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

But the NYT article will drive him deeper into the bunker Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe the White House. The high level of turnover among staff, the erratic decision-making, the presidential public streams-of-consciousness made with zero empathy for their subjects, the failure to actually deliver on key policies like The Wall: we knew all this and have done pretty much since Day 1, if not before. What we didn’t know before the sensational New York Times article[1] was the extent…

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If you’re betting on the next Lib Dem leader the field could be about to get rather large

If you’re betting on the next Lib Dem leader the field could be about to get rather large

Sir Vince Cable: "I'm not putting a timeline [on it]" Lib Dem leader says he will lead party through #Brexit and local elections before standing down https://t.co/YHjGU6K2SA pic.twitter.com/gQEfSUYFYE — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) September 7, 2018 Lib Dems plan to let supporters choose leader without joining fee https://t.co/abmfNNFn6a — The Guardian (@guardian) September 6, 2018 This is a very good question. The Lib Dems' rule changes could enable a current Lab MP to very easily become the next leader of…

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Surely Labour MPs won’t go quietly with deselections set to become a reality

Surely Labour MPs won’t go quietly with deselections set to become a reality

Joan Ryan is chair of Labour Friends of Israel. Tonight local party radicals passed a vote of no confidence in her, 1st stage of deselection. Tough to think of a worse look for a political party that aspires to govern. https://t.co/7Pqyg6TPvL — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 6, 2018 Another moderate and Corbyn critic @gavinshuker has also just lost a confidence vote tonight. That’s 4 Labour MPs in total now, after Hoey and Field. The purge has begun. — Tom…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Would Remain win a second referendum and could Brexit lead to a united Ireland?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Would Remain win a second referendum and could Brexit lead to a united Ireland?

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a new report by NatCen suggesting that attitudes to Brexit are shifting and that Brits would vote Remain next time. Meanwhile, Keiran takes us through some recent polling in Northern Ireland from Deltapoll on the question of a united Ireland following Brexit and asks whether unionism is too complacent about Northern Ireland’s future in the UK. Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

So, I started doing these videos a couple of months ago, and some of them have been very successful. And others are about the Italian economy. In doing so, I discovered something: if you put video content out onto the web, you will get deluged in comments. So, I’ve been accused of being a racist, and of being soft on illegal immigrants. I’ve also received a ton of emails asking me questions, some of which were not (metaphorically) written in…

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The morning must read

The morning must read

https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/1037428020401848320 This is probably the most astonishing article I’ve ever read. Two hours on and my jaw is still on the floor. The New York Times say The Times today is taking the rare step of publishing an anonymous Op-Ed essay. We have done so at the request of the author, a senior official in the Trump administration whose identity is known to us and whose job would be jeopardized by its disclosure. We believe publishing this essay anonymously is…

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No surrender to the IHRA

No surrender to the IHRA

Labour MP John Mann: "The eight should announce themselves."https://t.co/TLPEhQJJPw — Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) September 5, 2018 When I look at the way Labour are handling the who anti-Semitism story I end up sounding like the late great Fred Trueman, ‘I don’t know what’s going off out there’. After the events yesterday I would have drawn the line under the whole affair and moved on to targeting the many areas the government are screwing up. But those eight MPs coupled with…

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Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

The above is screen grab from a ‘poll’ that The Press and Journal are conducting online about Scottish Independence. Any poll that involves self selection, has no weightings, allows multiple voting, and doesn’t publish data tables can be safely ignored. Because as in the tweet below these polls can be ‘gamed’ to favour one side making the findings even more unreliable. Why you should ignore voodoo polls. https://t.co/hcC0fyyr7F. Picture Via @CarlosD22428844. pic.twitter.com/f5QGvRakBV — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2018 As an…

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