politicalbetting.com – Page 783 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

3/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Please indulge me as I take a minute today to complain about poll questions that ask people whether they'd be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if the candidate did X thing. — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 Things people are generally bad at:-explaining how they decide their votes-entertaining counterfactuals-understanding probability This asks them to do all three! — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 But the even bigger problem is that people aren't going to…

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The Dangers of Polite Demagogues

3/9/2018 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The cartoonist known as Pont is perhaps best remembered (if at all) for his Punch series on the English character. The cartoons depict a certain type of pre-war English upper middle class life (dressing for dinner, hunting, country weekends, clubland, patient, stoic enjoyment of outdoor pursuits, bewilderment at Abroad and the need to Keep up Standards, often to the point of absurdity) laced with endearing eccentricity. It is a life which has largely disappeared, save for those (often foreigners) wealthy enough…

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Cat meet pigeons

2/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Sunday TIMES: “May and Corbyn face double coup” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/qD7n75C0Mj — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) September 1, 2018 The best advice from an MP going into this autumn? “Buckle up.” The @ObserverUK Big read on the plotting, chaos and intrigue that lies ahead…https://t.co/FoTxZS9vAs pic.twitter.com/3bqD6p5vRZ — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) September 2, 2018 Those hoping for a quiet Autumn on the politics front are set to be disappointed. Just when you thought politics couldn’t get any more exciting several newspapers are reporting…

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PB Video Analysis: What Chance a US-UK Free Trade Deal

2/9/2018 robert Comments 0 Comment

Brexit is approaching. And with it – in President Trump’s mind – comes an opportunity for a transatlantic free trade deal, bringing together the World’s two largest English speaking democracies. Atlantacists in Britain are excited, those who believe we should be supping with the Europeans are scared. But before the trigger is pulled, what are the compromises that would be needed to put together a US-UK free trade deal? Could Dr Liam Fox get something in place before the 2020…

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The affairs of state. How the personal can become very political indeed

1/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Love him or loathe him, Alex Salmond is one of the towering political figures of the age. He has taken the cause of Scottish independence from a fringe idea to one of the great themes of Scottish and indeed British politics. With a ready wit and an unsurpassable sense of his own importance, he has assembled an army of Nats on and offline, all straining to be unyoked from the United Kingdom. This last week, Scottish politics has been convulsed…

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Age is not just a number: Corbyn’s greying pals

1/9/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

When does he bring the next generation through? Stalin liked a good purge. Leaving aside his sadistic and psychopathic tendencies, and the fact that they kept population, politicians, military and everyone else in greater or lesser states of constant fear, they also raised him closer to the god-like status he presumably aspired to. Not just because he was ultimately directing events, nor the pseudo-religious worship but the fact that by the late 1930s, he alone remained of the revered revolutionary…

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Local By-Election Summary : August 2018

31/8/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Conservatives 6,874 votes (33% -6% on last time) winning 7 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 6,203 votes (30% +1% on last time) winning 3 seats (-1 on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,202 votes (25% +12% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 on last time) Independent candidates 1,887 votes (9% +2% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Green Party 427 votes (2% -3% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) UKIP 298…

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Is Ruth Davidson the new Alec Douglas-Home?

31/8/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Video: Excerpt from a January 2016 episode of Newsnight We’ve been here before, the best hope for the Tory party winning the next general election is a Scot that isn’t an MP and yet the Tory Party yet somehow engineers the situation for that non MP to become Tory leader & Prime Minister and an MP shortly thereafter. Today’s Sun newspaper reports RUTH Davidson has told friends she may move to Westminster to become a Cabinet minister as a stepping…

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