Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

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The SNP lost nearly half a million votes since the GE2015, Labour only gained fewer than 10,000. For every 48 voters the SNP lost Labour gained only 1 voter. For every 3 voters Lab gained the Scottish Tories gained nearly 100 voters. pic.twitter.com/MpWUQjDkwF — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 11, 2018 Analysing the Corbyn ‘surge’ in Scotland One of the most profitable areas of general election betting in recent elections has been in Scotland, where backing the 2015 SNP tsunami was very…

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If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble

If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble

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Ted Cruz is using doctored footage to make it look like Beto O'Rourke supports flag burning (he doesn't) pic.twitter.com/e7d04WK0Dp — NowThis Impact (@nowthisimpact) September 10, 2018 After watching that video above I had one overwhelming thought, Ted Cruz knows he is in trouble in his campaign to hold his Senate seat in Texas. Now why is he in trouble? In 2012 Cruz won Texas by nearly 16% but as we can see from the RCP table, his lead is nowhere…

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Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

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London Westminster voting intention: LAB: 48% (-7)CON: 26% (-7)LDEM: 15% (+6)GRN: 5% (+3)UKIP: 4% (+3) via @YouGov, 03 – 07 Seph/t @MileEndInst Chgs. w/ 2017 election result. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 10, 2018 Brexit, anti-Semitism, and crime all seem to be having an impact I think the collapse in the Tory and Lab vote shares is down to a mixture of Brexit not appealing to London and the anti-Semitism issues swirling around Labour. For me the most interesting aspect…

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Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

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Tory indifference towards the Union and opposition to Brexit in Northern Ireland makes a united Ireland a real possibility writes Keiran Pedley I cannot have been the only person that was astonished at Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley’s recent admission that she knew nothing of the place before taking office. I am probably being naïve, but you would have thought that someone appointed to such an important role would at least possess a passing knowledge of its history and the…

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The power and politics of pardon

The power and politics of pardon

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Under the US constitution, an American president has a virtually untrammelled power to pardon, or commute the sentence of, anyone convicted of a Federal offence (but not offences under State law). It is a power completely personal to the president, who can exercise it for any reason, or for no good reason, and it has been used surprisingly often: 1,927 times by Barack Obama, for example. Although there is a government department, the Office of the Pardon Attorney, through which…

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Sweden sours? Will the far right make further inroads in Scandinavian social democracy?

Sweden sours? Will the far right make further inroads in Scandinavian social democracy?

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For the last 100 years, the Social Democrats have dominated Swedish politics.  They have been in government for all bar 22 of those years.  It used its hegemonic status to establish a social democratic culture that worked with the country’s Lutheran ethos and with business, and for a long time managed to preside over a successful and distinctive blend of high taxation supporting a strong social safety net and a dynamic economy. Their grip has been loosening for a generation. …

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Further thoughts on Chris Williamson succeeding Jeremy Corbyn

Further thoughts on Chris Williamson succeeding Jeremy Corbyn

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Earlier on this week I wrote a piece on Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Jeremy Corbyn tumbling from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week, I also explained the reasons why I wouldn’t be jumping aboard that betting bandwagon. The tweets below from Theo Bertram are a response to my initial tweets on the subject. Theo is someone who knows the Labour party very well, he has been an adviser to both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, so I really do…

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Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

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But the NYT article will drive him deeper into the bunker Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe the White House. The high level of turnover among staff, the erratic decision-making, the presidential public streams-of-consciousness made with zero empathy for their subjects, the failure to actually deliver on key policies like The Wall: we knew all this and have done pretty much since Day 1, if not before. What we didn’t know before the sensational New York Times article[1] was the extent…

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