PB regulars will know that I am a keen spread better on political events where the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Essentially you “buy” and “sell” a position as though it was a stock or share and watch how the market moves. At GE2017 on the Saturday after the Tory manifesto launch I “sold” CON seats at 393. They ended up with 318 MPs and my profit…
Could losing an election be the best thing to happen to the 25/1 shot? These are not normal times. In normal times, US presidential candidates are vice presidents, senators and governors: people who already have a record in high office. There have always been exceptions but even then, they usually conformed to the rule in a wider sense. Trump does not conform to the rule. Indeed, Trump fails to conform to many received rules of politics. The easy conclusion would…
There's an online questionnaire here to find out which "value clan" you belong to https://t.co/WEX6o88OAA pic.twitter.com/aIIz2vJe8D — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 26, 2018 If you haven’t done so already check this out for yourself here. Essentially this is a different approach to identifying voters which has been put together by the pollster BMG and academics at Bristol and Manchester. Both David Herdson and I came out as Orange bookers. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
But who’s benefiting? All the signs are that turnout is going to reach almost presidential election levels in the US midterm elections that take place on Tuesday November 6th. In many states it is possible to vote early and quite a number started the process on Tuesday with two weeks to go. Almost across the board the numbers who are availing themselves of this facility are at levels nearing, or in some cases topping. the recorded numbers casting their ballots…
The German state of Hessen goes to the polls this weekend. Hessen has been something of a swing state between the CDU and SPD. The current state assembly has the CDU in power on 38% of the vote in a coalition with the Greens who won 11%. The SPD leads the opposition with 31%. But all is not well. The large national parties are worried by the shifting ground in German politics. A look at recent polling shows why Both the CDU and SPD…
Last night they created a shocking let-down One of the problems with letting it be known that you are making threats and repeatedly not followed them through is that after a time people start to twig and cease to take you seriously. That stage, surely, has now been reached with Moggsy’s ERG boys which claims to have 80 CON MPs as active members. Given how their statements on other things have not been realised I treat that number with a…
The Dems lead in generic poll but will that be enough? In 2016 there were two elections which had global reverberations – Brexit and, of course, the election of Donald Trump. Both were close, both were seen as defeats for the liberal establishment and in both those on the losing side would dearly love to see the outcomes thwarted in some way. In the US Midterm election a week on Tuesday those opposed to Trump would dearly like to “clip…
On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the political lay of the land as we approach the budget, what the public think about the economy (and who they trust to run it) and how important the economy is in voting intention terms in a Brexit-dominated 2018. You can listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet