My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

PB regulars will know that I am a keen spread better on political events where the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Essentially you “buy” and “sell” a position as though it was a stock or share and watch how the market moves.

At GE2017 on the Saturday after the Tory manifesto launch I “sold” CON seats at 393. They ended up with 318 MPs and my profit was the sell price minus the actual which in this case was 75 multiplied by my stake level. This was my most profitable spread bet ever.

SportingIndex have detailed spread markets available on just about every state race and I am very attracted to the Texas Senator contest where ex-presidential hopeful, Ted Cruz is trying to fight off a big challenge from Beto O’Rourke. In the previous thread David Herdson looked at O’Rourke as a presidential hopeful based on his exceptional campaign and incredible fundraising.

My bet is a “sell” of the Cruz vote share at 53% in the Senate race a week on Tuesday. If he falls short of that figure, even though he might get re-elected, I will be a winner. So if he got 51% I would make two times my stake level. If he ended up on 55% my loss would be twice the stake level.

There is a third contender in the race which will eat a bit into the Cruz-O’Rourke aggregate vote.

I was hoping to give a link to the market but SPIN tend to restrict activity in specialist areas like this to when the person running their politics markets is working. I guess he’ll be there on Monday.

I’ve been hugely impressed with O’Rourke and assuming he doesn’t bomb in the Texas Senatorial race he has a great future.

Mike Smithson

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