The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

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Viewcode once again looks at the detailed data The midterms are for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 36 out of 50 state Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors and is the successor to a similar article . The following figures were taken between 1am and 4am GMT November 6th 2018 NATIONWIDE GENERIC BALLOT POLLS A “generic ballot”…

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Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

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The Mid Term Elections of 2018 are shaping up to be one of the most important elections in recent times, perhaps up there with the 1994 Republican “Contract with America” or the 2010 “schallacking” that the Republicans gave the Democrats. Whatever happens, all the twists and turns will be poured over for years to come, so instead of looking at the issues, I will be focusing on which congressional districts are likely to flip (GAIN) and what impact that will…

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What price democracy? 

What price democracy? 

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In late 2018, as Britain wanders down the path marked Brexit, the route ahead still looks murky, thorny and pot-holed. The country is still divided almost equally between those who think Britain was right to vote Leave in 2016 and those who think it was a mistake. An increasing number of hardcore Remainers are calling for a second referendum, while many hardcore Leavers argue that would make the first referendum meaningless, undermining democracy.  So the question arises: is democracy a means or an end?  Let’s take an extreme example. Until sanctions bit in…

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One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and one has the Republicans in the lead

One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and one has the Republicans in the lead

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Within a few hours Americans start voting in probably the most crucial midterm elections that we’ve seen in modern times. Quite simply these take place after 2 years of Mr Trump’s occupancy of the White House which has had a extraordinary impact on the way government works and how Americans see themselves. The Democrats are desperate to win at least the House tomorrow as well as gain a clutch of state governorships. They also hope to do well in the…

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My Beto O’Rourke spread bet that could still be winner even if Ted Cruz is re-elected

My Beto O’Rourke spread bet that could still be winner even if Ted Cruz is re-elected

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The betting format that gives you more options Regular PBers will know I am very keen on political spread betting simply because this offers far more betting possibilities than are available from standard bookmakers or betting exchanges like Betfair. This is best illustrated by what’s possible on tomorrow’s Texas senatorial race if you think that the Democrat, Beto will struggle to struggle to win but you think he is going to do very well. The latest polls have the Cruz…

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Key state by key state looking in detail at how tomorrow’s battle for the Senate might go

Key state by key state looking in detail at how tomorrow’s battle for the Senate might go

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It’s not just the Democrats who have turnout issues One of the things about political betting is that for the most of the time there are not things that you can have a gamble on which you’re going to see results within a few days or weeks. Well tomorrow we have the US midterm elections which by all accounts are taking the form of the referendum on the President. This is the biggest political betting event of the year and…

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Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

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Video above: The WSJ’s take on Florida allowing felons to vote. On Tuesday Floridians will vote on whether to allow one and a half millions felons the right to vote, the polling shows that it is likely the voters will back restoration of voting rights for felons. Several respected observers have said felons being allowed to vote might have no impact in the results in the sunshine state, although some say it will benefit the Democrats, some say it may…

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Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

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  Whenever I want something sensational to read, I look at my Betfair account.  It’s not always sensationally good, but there’s always something to consider.  The markets I usually end up checking out are the long term ones: next Prime Minister, next Conservative leader and next Labour leader in particular.  These three markets have much in common and indeed overlap heavily: the next Prime Minister is likely to be one of Jeremy Corbyn, the next Conservative leader and the next…

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