NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

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In the final part of our mini-series on the US midterms ahead of Tuesday’s vote Keiran talks to Patrick Ruffini from Echelon insights on the races to watch, the prospects for a Democratic wave and the likelihood of Trump winning re-election in 2020. Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @PatrickRuffini Tweet PS if you have missed the other episodes in our mini-series we have interview Trump supporter and former White House Communications Director Anthony…

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Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

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At the margins, who controls America’s imperfect democracy could be decisive Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either…

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Ladbrokes offering 50/1 that Cameron will be next Foreign Sec and 16/1 that he’ll return to the cabinet by end of 2019

Ladbrokes offering 50/1 that Cameron will be next Foreign Sec and 16/1 that he’ll return to the cabinet by end of 2019

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The ex-PM who took the Brexit referendum gamble said to want to make a return I’m not quite sure how we should take the reports first in the Sun and then in other media outlets about the former PM’s desires. The Standard reports: “..A friend of the 52-year-old suggested he would like to join the Cabinet after a new Tory leader succeeds Theresa May. The source told The Sun: “David is dedicated to public service and has often said he…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

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As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post. Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump’s approval rating and what to look out for in 2020. You can listen to this episode below. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet PS – For those that missed it you can check out the thread…

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The criminal investigation into Arron Banks/LeaveEU funding won’t stop Brexit but could strengthen TMay’s hand

The criminal investigation into Arron Banks/LeaveEU funding won’t stop Brexit but could strengthen TMay’s hand

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The big Brexit news today has been has been that the National Crime Agency is investigating Arron Banks and others over suspected offence relating to the funding of the referendum campaign. The news came from the Electoral Commission which stated that it had referred the cases because of suspicions that a “number of criminal offences may have been committed”. In particular it said it suspected Mr Banks was not the “true source” of loans to the campaign and the money…

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Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

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YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings stable amongst Leave voters But Corbyn struggling amongst GE2017 LAB voters As we approach what could be a very critical time in British politics with a possible Brexit deal only weeks away James Bowley has shared with me the above charts based on looking at the detailed data of all the published YouGov voting intention polls since the last general election. The good news for the Tories and Mrs May is that after recovering from the…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

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This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors. The first in our series sees Keiran Pedley speak to Anthony Scaramucci. You can listen to the show below: Scaramucci is a leading Trump supporter, serving Trump in a variety of roles including an…

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The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

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Brexit secretary confirms deal expected by mid-November https://t.co/Xo4xGOB5SG — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 31, 2018 Raab names November 21st as the date There’ve been developments in the government’s negotiations with the EU on Brexit, with Dominic Raab, saying in a letter to MPs on the Brexit committee that he will be willing to give evidence once a deal was finalised and that they currently expected November 21st to be suitable. It appears that the government is looking to finalise a…

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