We could be heading for crossover in the “UK to leave EU on Mar 29th 2019” betting

We could be heading for crossover in the “UK to leave EU on Mar 29th 2019” betting

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Chart Betdata.io It’s now 54-46 The above betting market is one of the most active at the moment and as can be seen there’s a growing sense that the UK might not leave the EU on March 29th 2019 as planned and laid down in the Article 50 process. A lot of this represents the current political reaction to the latest state of negotiations and the talk of a possible second referendum. There’s also the Brexit court case in Scotland….

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Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

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Betdate.io It is now the nearly week since the US midterm elections and still we have to wait for a final outcome. There are two big state results to be completed both of which are on a knife edge. There is a strong argument for saying that the midterm performances 2 years before a presidential election are not a good pointer to the outcome. There are certainly a number of precedents to support that position. What makes the 2018 elections…

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JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

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When transport minister and brother of BoJo, Jo Johnson, quit as transport minister on Friday calling for a second referendum there was an uptick on the Betfair betting market that one would take place before the end of 2019. It moved from about a 22% chance to a 29% chance which is where it remains at the moment. I’ve been looking at this market for some time and the odds have never been sufficiently attractive either way to tempt me….

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Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.

Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.

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The UK’s relationship with the EU has never been cosy, and, as you may have noticed, it’s recently become incredibly contentious. Worse still, and regardless of what happens next, this is going to dominate politics in the UK for decades. The reason is simple. This is a matter of identity. Some fear being governed by foreigners, the nation losing control of its own democratic destiny. Some feel they’re having their rights taken away against their will. How do you bridge…

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New adventures in electoral systems. Approval voting

New adventures in electoral systems. Approval voting

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This is an intriguing experiment. The winner should be the candidate who most voters approve of. So it encourages centrism and hardliners to be flexible. https://t.co/nEORMKTA8T — Alastair Meeks (@AlastairMeeks) November 7, 2018 Settle down at the back, I can tell you’re getting overexcited. The midterm elections in the US have been endlessly pored over. One result, however, may have more far-reaching effects than most. Or not. Politics does not want for different voting systems. We have first past the post, the method used…

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After Tuesday Trump surely has less than a 69% chance of being the Republican WH2020 nominee

After Tuesday Trump surely has less than a 69% chance of being the Republican WH2020 nominee

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The value bet is that he won’t A number of US commentators are taking the view that the order in which results came in on Tuesday evening is giving a distorted picture of what happened. The early news about the races in Ohio and Florida dominated the initial thinking and overshadowed what is now clear was in fact a big success for the Democrats. The party looks set to make more House gains than at any Midterms since Watergate. The…

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April 2019: month of chaos

April 2019: month of chaos

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A No Deal Brexit is now highly likely in March Nothing has changed: words that might well form Theresa May’s epitaph. Unfortunately for her, unless something does, that epitaph will be needed sooner rather than later. With less than five months until the Brexit deadline, both the parliamentary maths and the European diplomacy remain resolutely irresoluble. Nothing has changed. Some might argue that’s a favourable interpretation; that Jo Johnson’s resignation yesterday indicated the maths are getting worse for the PM…

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PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

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There’s this parody of Guardian readers children’s parties, where pass the parcel involves presents with every layer, and nobody is ever eliminated from musical chairs. This “all must have prizes” mentality seems to have reached US politics, as it appears that everyone won the midterms: the Democrats, the Republicans, Nancy Pelosi and President Trump. Who really won, and – ummm – does it matter? I’m diving into the numbers and letting you know who should be pleased. Robert Smithson Robert…

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