Punters expect TMay to go this year Raab becomes the new CON leader favourite And 2019 the year for the next general eletion The prices are based on the Betfair exchange and the charts are from Betdata.io. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Just be thankful you don’t work in the West Wing Away from Brexit for a moment and things do not appear to be happy in the White House. This from the excellent Political Wire For weeks this fall, an ebullient President Trump traveled relentlessly to hold raise-the-rafters campaign rallies — sometimes three a day — in states where his presence was likely to help Republicans on the ballot,” the Los Angeles Times reports. “But his mood apparently has changed as…
On Betfair the money goes on a 2018 TMay exit Betdata.io Well all those who were predicting that today there would be a cabinet rebellion on the Brexit deal and a possible vote of no confidence move against Mrs May have been proved wrong. Yet again the most resilient leader of recent times continues to defy political gravity. The next stage its for this to go to the House of Commons and that might not be as easy as today…
Founder of ConHome, @montie backs the deal. https://t.co/3T70zwhIoA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2018 That the founder ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, has Tweeted that he’s backing the deal suggests that this is going to be less of a struggle for TMay than many thought. A couple of years ago Newsnight described him as “the most famous conservative who is not an MP” and there’s little doubt that he still has a lot of influence particularly as he as always been…
After all the waiting this is a massive day for Theresa May and for the country’s relationship with Europe. What I find amazing is the number of MPs and other commentators, declaring that this is a bad deal and they haven’t even seen the document yet. Sobeit. At the end of the day the big question will be how many MPs will be ready to put their heads above the parapet and vote for no deal with all that that…
But what are the chances of success? So the brexit process moves a step forward with a broad agreement that Theresa May now has to sell to her cabinet, then her party, and then the House of Commons. Each of these hurdles looks insurmountable but then Theresa May has got over many obstacles in the 18 months since she lost the party its majority and is determined enough to push this as hard as she is able. If Brexiteers like…
What is Corbyn’s LAB going to do? With things apparently coming to the head with the EU withdrawal negotiations the above shows the latest YouGov tracker on how voters think broken down into what they did at the referendum and their current voting intention. This is the first time for months that this has been published on PB partly because the numbers almost never change or only very by very small amounts. As can be seen the main figure continues…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9lWuZ7f-oA&feature=youtu.be Yesterday one of the midterm contenders who received a lot of publicity during the campaign, Richard Ojeda, announced that he was running for the presidency and published his first campaign video, see above. He was fighting last Tuesday in a congressional district in West Virginia that had been won by Trump by a margin of 49% at WH2016. He ended up just 14% behind the Republican victor an improvement of 35 points. Given the likely nature of the White…