The nights may be starting to draw in and people’s minds are starting to turn to the thoughts of Christmas presents, but for the electors in the 22 council wards where there were local by-elections in November, the main discussion point was who to vote for in those local by-elections. And for the first time since July, the UKIP decline seemed to benefit everyone with Con, Lab and Lib Dem all advancing and as a result of that the…
Scotland could become an independent nation without another referendum if Scots elect a large majority of SNP MPs or if the SNP win a majority of the vote in Scotland at a Westminster GE. The SNP won 35 out 59 seats at GE2017 with under 37% of the vote.https://t.co/HAIRzuSZ58 pic.twitter.com/gElzpubu8c — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 2, 2018 Even though I’m someone who considers Brexit the greatest blunder this country has undertaken since appeasement I’m not a fan of another referendum until…
The tip I’m about to give is not particularly exciting, or thrilling and it certainly won’t get you rich overnight seeing as the potential payday in question is top price 2-5 and 542 days away at the time of writing this article. But it is highly likely to win, more than the implied 71.4% that the odds suggest. The bet is Sadiq Khan to win the London mayoral election in 2020. Unlike many long term political bets (Tory & Labour…
Of all the issues covered by the 600-odd page Withdrawal Agreement, it is hondootedly Article 6: “Until the future relationship becomes applicable, a single customs territory between the Union and the United Kingdom shall be established”, or “the backstop”, that causes the greatest angst; critics say it ties the UK into EU customs alignment with no unilateral means of exit and want Theresa May to junk it. Designed to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland, without the backstop, there is…
Changing course now will take a lot more than parliamentary motions Brexit ignorancis is a nasty little disease. Symptoms include the sufferer becoming breathless, exhibiting undue certainty in their pronouncements, asserting without evidence, disregarding evidence that’s inconvenient, suffering a loss of hearing and developing a fondness for tweed. Unfortunately, not only do mild cases not develop immunity but they leave the victim more prone to further, and more serious bouts. Those working at one remove from the action are inevitably…
Inevitably much of the current UK political betting activity has been focused on Brexit and particularly whether or not we are going to see a second referendum before the end of next year. As can be seen sentiment has been changing and although the “won’t happen” option is still favourite it is getting tighter. It is the “what happens if, as appears likely, the December 11th Commons voting goes against the government” question that’s driving it. Maybe we could get…
Chart Betdata.io How is this going to go? Given the huge uncertainty that hangs over Theresa May’s Brexit deal it is no wonder that punters are getting more nervous when risking their cash on the market that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year. Back in October on Betfair the chances of this happening looked much greater and the betting trades that were taking place had this at a 71.4% chance. That’s now hovering about…
On this week’s podcast the Polling Matters team, including the returning Rob Vance, discuss evolving public opinion on May’s Brexit deal and what happens if she does not win the ‘meaningful vote’ next month. You can listen here: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Follow @RobVance Tweet