French toast – Bread and butter issues burn Macron

French toast – Bread and butter issues burn Macron

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Aux armes citoyens! or at least put on your yellow hi-vis. In the last month, 50 years after the explosion of 1968, the French are once again taking to the streets.  Whereas Mai 68 was a cocktail of demands for a freer more open society, Decembre 18 is more a cry of anger about a stagnant standard of living. France is increasingly struggling to satisfy its citizen’s aspirations. In the post war world France progressed rapidly during Les Trente Glorieuses  the…

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Latest YouGov tracker finds the Brexit “wrong” lead over “right” in double figures at record level

Latest YouGov tracker finds the Brexit “wrong” lead over “right” in double figures at record level

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With the political process of the UK leaving the EU completely dominating the headlines the latest YouGov brexit tracker has unwelcome news for those who want to follow the referendum result. The figures are in the chart above. 49% believe that in hindsight it was wrong to vote to leave the EU with 38% saying it was right. The question has been asked several times a month by YouGov in exactly the same form since the referendum in 2016 and…

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Geoffrey Cox for next CON leader? He’s head and shoulders above the rest

Geoffrey Cox for next CON leader? He’s head and shoulders above the rest

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At 50/1 a good bet? These are quite extraordinary times and one of the “stars” to have emerged has been the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox – someone who first came to many people’s attention when he introduced TMay at October’s CON conference. I thought he did brilliantly yesterday handling what was a very difficult issue for the government and no doubt will be seeing more of him later. He’s not someone who has been mentioned much as a prospective CON…

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The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

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Betdata.io With so many big things happening in UK politics as the March 29 EU exit deadline gets nearer one of they key betting markers is surely “Will the UK leave the EU as planned on March 29th next year?”. The chart above shows the moves on Betfair over the past month. It strikes me that the current betting price that it will happen of 54% is an understatement giving the machinations that would have to happen in order for…

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As if things weren’t complicated enough

As if things weren’t complicated enough

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UK government may have been in contempt of Parliament by not publishing Brexit legal advice, Commons Speaker rules https://t.co/osk18Kg8GY — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 3, 2018 Bercow said there was 'an arguable case that a contempt has been committed’ and an emergency debate will be held first thing on Tuesday.https://t.co/ulxYTOyGgK — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) December 3, 2018

Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

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The three weeks that could make or break the PM It has been observed many times before that the the prime minister, Mrs May, is a remarkably resilient person able to go forward when all seems doomed. Who would have thought in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election debacle that eighteen months on she would still be in Number 10 and be on the brink of securing agreement on the deal that takes Britain out of the EU? Let…

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If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should be favourites for “Emergency PM”

If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should be favourites for “Emergency PM”

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She'll never resign. But, this hinges on hunt and javid – the two biggest beasts and leadership frontrunners for emergency PM. If they say time is up then time is up. — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) December 2, 2018 Both might be worth a punt for next PM I’ve long taken the view that Theresa May is not going to resign voluntarily before her mission of handling brexit and taking the UK out of the EU has been accomplished. However the…

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