The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start

The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start

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Chart betdata.io But if punters could see this why not Moggsy’s ERG? Yesterday was a huge political betting day with two million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May. It’s quite useful to look back and see how the markets performed against the actual result and as can be seen the lowest it ever dropped to on the Betfair Exchange for Mrs May was within the first hour at 9.40am when it…

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Immigration, immigration, immigration – it hasn’t gone away you know.

Immigration, immigration, immigration – it hasn’t gone away you know.

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Immigration was one of the major issues in the referendum debate. The influx of several million Europeans coming to a country which had made no serious effort to accommodate its biggest ever increase in population changed the political landscape and enabled in no small way the decision to leave the EU. Since the vote the immigration issue has appeared to become less important. In part this is because immigration from Europe has reduced in the last two years. Improved wages at…

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Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out

Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out

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With voting due to start at Westminster at 6pm there’s bad news for the PM from the ultra Brexiteer site, ConHome. A snap survey finds 63% of those who participated wanting the PM out. The question of whether this is representative of CON members I don’t know but this is very much the impression that CONHome tries to project. Whether this will influence MPs as they prepare to cast their ballot in the confidence vote is hard to say. ComHome…

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If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

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But could the betting markets have it wrong? Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May. So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job. The…

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Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

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So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place. Under the rule changes introduced when William Hague was Conservative leader this is the mechanism for ousting someone who has ceased to retain the confidence of the parliamentary Party. If she is defeated then there will have to be a new leadership election at a very…

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Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

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Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country – and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 11, 2018 Masses of speculation about the numbers going in – lots of people hoping the 48 has been reached, but not clear –…

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