politicalbetting.com – Page 752 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

11/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

SNP General Election target seats Election Polling LAB’s going to struggle to win the next GE unless there’s a rapid improvement in Scotland Last night Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP would back a Commons no confidence motion against the government if one was tabled by Labour. I’d suggest that Nicola Sturgeon and her team would not be asking for another election now unless it was pretty confident that it would do as well or even better than the 35 Scottish…

Read More Read More

How people would feel if the government cancelled Brexit & Britain stayed in the EU?

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Trying to measure the “betrayal effect” Interesting polling out today from YouGov which could just become increasingly important. My initial reaction is that the 24% saying they’d feel betrayed is much lower than I’d have thought and puts into context some of the assertions from the ERG gang as they try to argue for a hard Brexit. That such a smallish percentage say they’d feel berated if Brexit got cancelled does not quite fit with some of the rhetoric that…

Read More Read More

As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum gets tighter and tighter

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io ..the ex-Mayor is once again favourite to succeed TMay ..and TMay becomes a 28% chance to go this year Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs? This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening. The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had…

Read More Read More

As Trump’s legal troubles mount punters now make it a 34% chance that he’ll win WH2020

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A good bet but which way? If it wasn’t for Brexit we’d be doing several threads a week about the US and particularly the prospects for Trump as the investigations appear to be getting closer. With the Mueller probe into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians during the 2016 campaign coming to a head it’s highly likely that we could see a lot of activity on Trump survival betting markets in the coming days and weeks. This…

Read More Read More

BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Remainers and Leavers are in for surprises

9/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the previous article I highlighted how UK politicians have become so entrenched in their insular debate that they are effectively ignoring the significant changes sweeping Europe. One can argue that our MPs primary focus has become to smash the other side rather than look at what is best for the country. So perhaps they should take some time to look beyond these shores and see how the politics are lining up. REMAINERS Congratulations! We are staying in! Enjoy the…

Read More Read More

BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1 Europe has changed – We can’t put Humpty together again.

9/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the first of a two part series, Alanbrooke looks at our relationship with the EU. As the Brexit debate rolls on the recent ruling by the ECJ Advocate General that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 brings a new angle to proceedings. Suddenly it is a lot easier to stay in. The uncertainty around how to stay in the EU and under which terms looks a lot clearer and in some ways simpler. So set aside the mechanics of…

Read More Read More

The first months of a Corbyn government

9/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

It’s objectively clear that there is a genuine possibility of a Corbyn government within months, possibly even weeks. That might be after an election, or it might be simply that the Conservatives lose the will to govern: there is a limit to how long governments can function with every vote at risk of failure, and yielding to a minority Labour government which is also subject to hostile majorities at every turn may seem a lesser evil. But there’s been very…

Read More Read More