But could the betting markets have it wrong?
Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May.
So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job.
The last time this procedure was used to try to oust a CON leader, the confidence vote against IDS in October 2003, the Betfair market proved to be a good pointer to what was going to happen. It should be said that voting in that election took place all day and not like this one where it starts at 6 p.m. at night.
I’m going to be out for most of the afternoon and will probably not be posting again till 5 or 6 p.m.
Will what’s been described as the “most sophisticated electorate in the world” surprise us? It might.