New polling finds 42% saying the referendum was “unfair and illegitimate” against 38% who say it wasn’t

New polling finds 42% saying the referendum was “unfair and illegitimate” against 38% who say it wasn’t

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\ There’s a new Deltapoll out for the December issue of Prospect which asks a number of Bexit-related questions that I do not think have been highlighted before. The biggest one is in the heading that more voters think the referendum was “unfair and illegitimate” against 38% who disagree. This perception will surely add to the Government’s political challenges as we get close to the due date. Martin Boon of DeltaPoll says the polling shows “just how deep is the…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does the public now back Remain?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does the public now back Remain?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look into the implications of this week’s mid-terms in the US and dissect data from Survation and Chris Hanretty suggesting that Brits would vote Remain if there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. Elsewhere in the show, Leo looks at what polling tells us about the prospect of a Cameron comeback and Keiran criticises Momentum’s “consultation” of its members about Labour’s Brexit policy –…

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The main loser from the MidTerms looks set to be “Big Pharma”

The main loser from the MidTerms looks set to be “Big Pharma”

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One of the things we take for granted in the UK is the cost of our prescription medications. This is all part of the NHS and the majority of patients are too young/old or have chronic conditions which mean that they don’t pay. Even those who don’t benefit from free prescriptions are not asked to pay the cost price of their medication but a fixed fee. This means the NHS as almost a monopoly buyer is able to secure even…

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The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the O’Rourke vote share?

The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the O’Rourke vote share?

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Meanwhile the money goes on O’Rourke for WH2020 Exactly a month ago we launched the PB Prize Midterms competition with the question being: What will be the vote share (to 2 decimal points) of the Texas Democratic candidate, Beto O’Rourke, in the election set for four weeks on Tuesday? It was noted then that “Because it can take some time for final vote share in US elections to be determined this competition will be settled on the vote shares the…

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The restoration of Florida felons’ voting rights could tip the balance against GOP at WH2020

The restoration of Florida felons’ voting rights could tip the balance against GOP at WH2020

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We all know how Florida can have a huge impact on presidential elections and that it is always a tight race there. Overnight the incumbent Democratic Senator was ousted and replaced by a Republican winning by a very small margin. One of the other things that the state voted on yesterday was Amendment 4 which restores voting rights to 1.4 million people in Florida with past convictions.  The outcome, which required a 60%+ vote, restores the voting rights specifically to felons not…

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The story of the night on the betting markets

The story of the night on the betting markets

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At one point the Republicans were favourites to take the House I love these charts from Betdata.io showing the dynamic movement on the Betfair exchange elections markets. The odds on the Betfair Exchange, of course, are not determined by the bookmaker but rather by how individual punters are seeing it with some making wagers and others laying specific bets. What is intriguing knowing what we know now is that at one stage during the evening, as the chart shows, the…

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As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

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So far, we’re seeing the highest non-white voter turnout ever for a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/Zw67LwhYxm — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 7, 2018 Along with non-white voters, we’re also seeing the highest turnout of young voters (age 18-29) ever in a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/OhBWzSONE2 — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 7, 2018 Nbc has called first house seat swapping hands – Virginia 10- believe Barbara comstock now out if they're right. #Midterms2018 — emily m (@maitlis) November 7, 2018 One of the…

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