Meanwhile the approval rating of the EU leadership by UK voters is at a record high

Meanwhile the approval rating of the EU leadership by UK voters is at a record high

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A Gallup poll boost for remainers campaigning for a second Brexit referendum? Since it stopped carrying out voting surveys for the Telegraph after the 2001 general election Gallup has not really been a force in British political polling. This was the firm, of course, that really started the business and on which so much has been based. Well this week the US based, Gallup, has just published some UK Polling which is a useful addition given that Brexit totally dominating…

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Boris might need much more than Moggsy’s public backing if he’s to make it

Boris might need much more than Moggsy’s public backing if he’s to make it

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Moggsy appears to be ruling himself out of the leadership and is set to back fellow Etonian BoJohttps://t.co/Snu75YfUiB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2018 The main development in the Conservative leadership “contest” this morning has been an article by Moggsy in the hardline Brexit supporting Spectator ruling himself out of the leadership and giving support for the former Mayor and fellow Etonian, Mr Johnson. For a long period early in the year Rees-Mogg was favourite in the betting and…

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More and more punters are putting their money on a second referendum happening

More and more punters are putting their money on a second referendum happening

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Betdata.io I really do like showing betting charts simply to indicate how opinions about a likely outcome change all the time and it’s good to see it in graphic form. Giving the response so far from parliamentarians to the brexit deal the chances are that this might get voted down by MPs and if so then what? The consequences of no deal have not yet been spelled out to voters but there’s little doubt that ministers are aware. There’s increasing…

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PB Video Analysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

PB Video Analysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

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From the outside the UK economy looks pretty healthy. Unemployment is low and economic growth has been more consistent than any of its EU peers. Little wonder its politicians regard it as a success story. There’s only one problem. The UK economy is built on an edifice of consumption and debt. The work we do? It’s selling things to each other that have been made abroad. It’s a dangerously fragile situation, where we congratulate ourselves on maxing our credit cards…

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After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov

After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov

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This is as negative for the ERG gang as it is positive for the PM On the front page of the Times  this morning there is a report on part of its latest YouGov poll relating to its TMay trackers asking whether and when she should go. Last week’s poll came just as the Brexit deal was being published and had the most negative numbers yet for the PM. In just a week as the chart above shows there’s been…

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The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

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Labour peer Lord Adonis rules out the possibility of a general election over Brexit gridlock, instead considering a referendum more likely in 2019. Click here for the latest Brexit news: https://t.co/XHe3BeFcGK pic.twitter.com/3NJvhYGcSi — Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) November 20, 2018 The second referendum betting has been narrowing but still punters only give it a 38% chance. Chart from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/dQWTZTihVM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

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At one stage in my career I used to advise Betfair on the precise market rules for its political markets. These are critically important because an exchange like Betfair stands in between those who are laying bets and those who are backing and needs to have something to fall back on should there be a disagreement. So anytime you want to make a political bet it is important for your own protection to check the market rules. The currently heavy…

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