Olly Robbins’ overheard comments are a clue that TMay might be considering EURef2

Olly Robbins’ overheard comments are a clue that TMay might be considering EURef2

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David Herdson dissects the detail of what was said Brexit is not going to plan, it’s fair to assume. Only the Leave Ultras, intent on a No Deal outcome are likely to be feeling any confidence at the moment, and that group is always given to unjustified hope and expectation before the event anyway. Labour partisans not bothered about Brexit might also be revelling in the government’s discomfort too, but the list pleased with how it’s going runs short after…

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The “Led by Donkeys” billboards probably won’t stop Brexit but they’ll undermine many political reputations

The “Led by Donkeys” billboards probably won’t stop Brexit but they’ll undermine many political reputations

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In 2017 the movie,Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, won a host of awards and was a good demonstration of the power of this form of advertising. It is in relative terms cheap and can be focussed geographically. Whether that was the inspiration for the “Led by Donkeys” crowd-funding campaign I don’t know but over the past our weeks a series of posters like the ones above have been appearing in prominent locations throughout the UK. There’s one featuring Mr. Corbyn…

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Six Fridays to go and punters think there’s an increasing chance the the UK will leave on schedule

Six Fridays to go and punters think there’s an increasing chance the the UK will leave on schedule

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Betdata.io chart of movement over past 2 months on the Betfair exchange A month ago it was a 14.6% chance I’ve been on the Yes side of this bet for a week or so simply because I believe that TMay is so damn stubborn and focussed. Note the precise terms of this bet. “For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples…

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There was no big 8pm story as promised but leading LAB & CON figures have made interesting comments

There was no big 8pm story as promised but leading LAB & CON figures have made interesting comments

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I asked both @ChukaUmunna and @Anna_Soubry directly tonight if they were considering leaving their respective parties for a new movement. Umunna said: “When I joined the Labour Party I thought I’d be a member to my dying day…..” https://t.co/vgqUTwKHpb — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) February 14, 2019 I interrupted a Valentine's Day dinner for that 'story'. May a camel ejaculate in the ears of all the journalists that hyped this story. — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 14, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

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Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom as we know it

Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom as we know it

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Pressure for Irish unification could just be the beginning One of the features of Brexit, particularly a no deal one, is the impact that it could have on the integrity of the United Kingdom. There has been polling already in Northern Ireland about how people would feel there about the Union in the event of a no deal Brexit. The numbers don’t look good for those backing the union and under the Good Friday Agreement the Secretary of State for…

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Long standing Brexiteer, Corbyn, needs more than just threats if he’s to budge on a referendum

Long standing Brexiteer, Corbyn, needs more than just threats if he’s to budge on a referendum

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There comes a time when threats to quit need to be followed up with actions or else they will just be ignored pic.twitter.com/sPBxu4LcAa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2019 moment of truth is looming for Labour rebels wanting to start a new party, multiple sources say the schism will come if and when Corbyn doesn’t support amendment for 2nd referendum in two weeks time…which will also trigger several frontbench resignations https://t.co/joGWpknxMG — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) February 14, 2019…

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Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke is the most likely Democratic VP pick

Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke is the most likely Democratic VP pick

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This is from a discussion on Nate’s site – Fivethirtyeight on Beto O’Rourke’s chances of becoming his party’s Vice Presidential nominee. This is, of course, chosen by the nominee for President and takes place just before the convention. He notes. Here’s why: 1) There’s about a 55 percent chance (per Betfair) that the nominee will not be a white dude. 2) If the nominee is not a white dude, the VP probably will be a white dude. 3) The other…

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Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet minister out

Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet minister out

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I’ve just got 9/1 on Betfair that Chris Grayling will be the next cabinet minister out. It is not just the latest ferry company without ships saga but a whole history of cock-ups that we’ve seen. How he escaped unscathed from the last summer’s new rail table calamity was amazing. This lunchtime Corbyn, in one of his best PMQs ever, forensically used his six questions to put TMay under severe pressure. He came out winner big time. I should imagine…

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