It’s moved from a 12.8% chance to a 26% one in just three weeks
Given what we know about TMay and how unbending she is I’m becoming increasingly convinced that when the time runs out at 11pm on March 29th the UK will in fact be leaving the EU.
She’s going to the wire and the message to MPs of all parties is that if the deal is not approved by then the curtain will close on the UK’s membership of the EU as laid down in the act that was passed to invoke Article 50.
This is a high risk strategy that can only work if MPs of all parties are convinced that she means it. It also sends out powerful messages to Tusk & Co in Brussels.