The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woes
Con: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)
Lab: 250 (-12)
SNP: 39 (+4)
LD: 16 (+4)
Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz
— YouGov (@YouGov) February 11, 2019
REVISED. New Kantar poll sees movement broadly in line with last week's @OpiniumResearch 7% CON lead survey
Carried out 7-11 Feb
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2019
The backdrop to the current super-charged UK political environment as we get close to the March 29th deadline is that in terms of its position in relation to LAB the Tories are doing better than at any time since the 2017 General Election.
The big polling story overnight was the huge YouGov 48k sample survey which allows detailed analysis of every seat and the ability to project gains and losses. It was this model, of course, at the last election that did so well in forecasting that the Conservatives would lose their majority and naming the seats which would switch.
On top of that in recent days we’ve had the Ipsos MORI poll with its terrible leader ratings for Jeremy Corbyn, as well as 7% CON leads reported from Opinium and a standard YouGov poll.
This might not be as good as it sounds for the Prime Minister as she seeks to get a bit of party discipline ahead of the final phase of the commons voting on the EU exit deal.
The repeated message to dissident MPs is “if you’re not careful you will be letting Corbyn become Prime Minister” has less potency. Clearly it is much harder to argue given the latest surveys particularly this YouGov mega poll and a detailed analysis which proved to be so successful 2 years ago.
Of course at a general election things are very different and people are thinking about how their vote in the final days before ballots are cast. At the moment, with no election in prospect, this is much more of a theoretical exercise. That doesn’t take away the way polling impact on perceptions within the Westminster village.