The great Brexiters gamble – go with TMay’s deal or risking Brexit not happening at all

The great Brexiters gamble – go with TMay’s deal or risking Brexit not happening at all

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange There’s an intriguing piece in the FT by George Parker and Henry Mance about an overheard conversation in Brussels by TMay’s Chief Negotiator, Olly Robbins which set out a different approach to put pressure on the hardliners. Apparently they will be told – back the deal or risk a lengthy delay during which anything could happen. That broadly replaces what had appeared to be the strategy of making the choice between what’s…

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TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange It’s moved from a 12.8% chance to a 26% one in just three weeks Given what we know about TMay and how unbending she is I’m becoming increasingly convinced that when the time runs out at 11pm on March 29th the UK will in fact be leaving the EU. She’s going to the wire and the message to MPs of all parties is that if the deal is not approved by then…

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TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

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The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woesCon: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)Lab: 250 (-12)SNP: 39 (+4)LD: 16 (+4)Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz — YouGov (@YouGov) February 11, 2019 REVISED. New Kantar poll sees movement broadly in line with last week's @OpiniumResearch 7% CON lead surveyCON 40%+5LAB 35%-3LD 10%+1UKIP 3%-3Carried out 7-11 Feb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12,…

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The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”

The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”

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One of the most controversial terms in the current UK political climate is BINO – Brexit in Name only. Its usage derives from a previous US election where Republicans not deemed to be ideologically pure were dismissed as RINOs – Republican in Name Only. To the hardline anti-EUer BINO is a way categorising any move not thought to be pure enough as being a sell-out. To the hardline Remainers it raises the question of “what the hell is the point?”….

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Whilst TMay is said to be contemplating a no deal Brexit LAB’s once again embroiled in an anti semitism row

Whilst TMay is said to be contemplating a no deal Brexit LAB’s once again embroiled in an anti semitism row

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Theresa May is now seriously contemplating a no-deal Brexit. Here's the story of why:https://t.co/WFDKKd60Ql — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019 Labour MPs thought new data on anti-semitism would help clear up the problem. After tonight's PLP, many left 'depressed' or angry, or both. Full report:https://t.co/zbmj7eEz22 — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The party whose leader has the worst LOTO ratings on record refuses to accept an anti-Brexit petition

The party whose leader has the worst LOTO ratings on record refuses to accept an anti-Brexit petition

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https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1094950712134590466 The Corbyn/Milne ambivalence with be remembered A hour or so ago the anti-Brexit People’s Vote campaign sought to hand in a petition about the leadership’s stance at the LAB party HQ. What happened and filmed by the media might not, with the passage of time, look smart. Simply to refuse it doesn’t look good especially on a day when it has been revealed that Corbyn’s letter to TMay on the party’s approach forgot. to threaten a referendum. This is…

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The WH2020 Democratic nomination race: Sanders and O’Rourke best placed for the early rounds fundraising

The WH2020 Democratic nomination race: Sanders and O’Rourke best placed for the early rounds fundraising

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Chart compiled by New York Times In the smartphone age digital donors are paramount Over the weekend the New York Times published the above chart showing the number of potential online financial supporters that those who have declared that they are running for the Democratic nomination and those who are tipped to put their hat into the ring have available to them. Given that there are strict US rules on the maximum that an individual can give to a contender…

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Learning from history

Learning from history

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It is hard – and often painful – to see ourselves as others see us. Countries don’t face annual 360° appraisals. It is perhaps a back-handed compliment that Britain has been important enough to be subject to the scrutiny of others.  Famously, in 1962 Dean Acheson commented that “Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role.” Twitter was not around then but the speech, with its acute eye for Britain’s confusion about its role in world…

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