Crossing the Rubicon

Crossing the Rubicon

I am looking forward to meeting @SteveBarclay in Brussels on Mon evening. I will listen to how the UK sees the way through. The EU will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. But I will reaffirm our openness to rework the Political Declaration in full respect of #EUCO guidelines. — Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) February 8, 2019 For reasons I need not go into now, a few years ago I had occasion to go on a stag weekend to Barmouth in west…

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Damian Hinds – the 100/1 CON leadership longshot who at Oxford beat Moggsy for the Union Presidency

Damian Hinds – the 100/1 CON leadership longshot who at Oxford beat Moggsy for the Union Presidency

A guest slot betting tip from Woody662 I’m sure those political obsessives amongst us all remember the ‘Party Games’ episode of Yes Minister where 2 candidates on the extremes of the party were frontrunners for the post, only for the civil service to conspire to see them withdraw in favour of a compromise candidate. Sir Humphrey and Sir Arnold listed their requirements ‘malleable, flexible, likeable, No firm opinions, no bright ideas ect’ and eventually arrived, to initial self-amusement, at Jim…

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Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The route to any other outcome is fraught with difficulties You might think that with 94% of the time between the referendum and the scheduled Brexit Day now gone, we’d have some idea as to when and how Britain will be leaving the EU. Arguments about conceptual arrangements would have been better had in 2016 rather than in the final weeks. Instead, even the question as to whether the country will leave…

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A Labour Twitter thread with a sting in the tail from Michael Crick

A Labour Twitter thread with a sting in the tail from Michael Crick

Unlike the Tories, who charge thousands of pounds to go pheasant shooting with their ministers, a Labour government will never be bought off by the rich and powerful.https://t.co/mFBYHGTSK2 — The Labour Party (@UKLabour) February 8, 2019 Great. Can I book appointment for a cuppa with Mr Corbyn right now then please – milk, no sugar? I’ve not managed to interview him since the election. — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 8, 2019

Corbyn’s Ipsos-MORI ratings take a huge tumble with 72% saying they are dissatisfied with him

Corbyn’s Ipsos-MORI ratings take a huge tumble with 72% saying they are dissatisfied with him

Corbyn's net Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings drop from a net minus 32% to 55%. Chart from @standardnews pic.twitter.com/w7YRizjdmJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2019 These looks being the worst LAB leader ratings on record The latest Ipsos-MORI voting intention figure have LAB and CON level pegging which puts the pollsters out of line with Opinium and YouGov which both have CON leads of seven points. But there’s a shock for the LAB leader in the firm’s satisfaction ratings which have…

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Strong showings by the anti-Brexit LDs in the local by-elections declared overnight

Strong showings by the anti-Brexit LDs in the local by-elections declared overnight

A hold, a gain and big vote share increases Bolton & Undercliffe (Bradford) result: LDEM: 51.3% (+9.0)LAB: 34.1% (-10.6)CON: 12.4% (+2.4)GRN: 2.2% (-0.8) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 7, 2019 Thornton (Lambeth) result: LAB: 44.7% (-18.2)LDEM: 32.8% (+23.1)GRN: 9.7% (-1.7)CON: 9.6% (-6.4)WEP: 1.8% (+1.8)UKIP: 1.4% (+1.4) Labour HOLD. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 7, 2019 Evendons (Wokingham) result: LDEM: 63.1% (+16.3)CON: 31.9% (-8.8)LAB: 5.0% (-7.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 7, 2019…

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In terms of influence on major policy developments Corbyn today is surely the most powerful opposition leader in decades

In terms of influence on major policy developments Corbyn today is surely the most powerful opposition leader in decades

It’s possible the UK could end up with a Labour Brexit To me the biggest development of the day was the response by Donald Tusk to the Labour proposal for Brexit. The details envisage a softer brexit then Theresa May’s plan but because of the numbers in the Commons there’s a good chance that this is what could actually be agreed. If so that will be remarkable and something and it’s almost without precedent. Labour could claim that this was…

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Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’ll make his mind up by the end of the month

Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’ll make his mind up by the end of the month

And Biden’s plans remain a mystery The big developments in the WH2020 race have been an appearance by one-time Democratic nomination favourite, Beto O’Rourke on Oprah’s V show and reports on BuzzFeed that the man toping the nomination polling, 76 year old Joe Biden, has made no contact at all with the states that hold their primaries first. O’Rourke, who seemed to to be in a strong position after running Ted Cruz close in last November’s Texas race, had barely…

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