Labour 7,858 votes (30% -4% on last time) winning 3 seats (-2 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 6,854 votes (26% +10% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,267 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 831 votes (3% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time) Green Party 691 votes (3% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last…
The elections that may or may not happen While all sorts of attention has been given to the splits within the Conservative and Labour parties there has been very little coverage of the fact that UKIP, which won the 2014 UK euro elections, has been totally divided over the past 5 years. Barely a 3rd of 24 UKIP MEPs elected in May 2014 are still within the fold. One of the defectors, Nigel Farage, was leader in 2014 and has…
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at the numbers around Labour’s policy on a second Brexit vote and discuss the popularity of The Independent Group, comparing their potential impact to that of the SDP in the 1980s. Meanwhile, Matt unveils some exclusive polling on how Britain could vote in EU parliament elections should Article 50 be extended (& should Brits get to vote in them). Listen to the episode below Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley…
The 1979 Callaghan Winter of discontent press conference – the basis of the Sun’s famous “Crisis What Crisis” headline A crisis broken down into key elements For lovers of scandals and crises, the last few years have provided rich pickings, a surfeit, even. Scarcely an institution has been untouched: the NHS – from Morecambe Bay to the Francis Report on Stafford to Gosport, the police, the charity sector – from Amnesty to Oxfam, newspapers, the BBC, MPs and their expenses, Parliament and…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Both old white male failures from previous White House campaigns There’s been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 democratic nomination. Last week Bernie Sanders came into the race and established himself as second favourite. Now, the latest development is that Joe Biden, who first ran for the White House in 1984, is said to be on the point of putting his hat into the ring. Both, because they’ve…
In the US the big political news has been the appearance before a Congressional committee of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer who is set to go to prison in May after being convicted last year. The Republicans on the committee have been seeking to discredit him but his comments could have a big impact on WH2020. A good flavour of the hearing is from this exchange between Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and Michael Cohen during today’s House Oversight Committee: GOSAR:…
So, let’s imagine. It’s the Ides of March. MPs have voted against Mrs May’s Deal (again). They’ve voted against No Deal. They’ve voted in favour of an extension. Through gritted teeth Mrs May announces to Parliament that she and her faithful sherpa, Olly Robbins, will be off to Brussels (again) to agree a short extension. By now, one imagines, they must have their own personal Eurostar carriage and enough Belgian chocolate, vacuum-packed mussels and frozen frites in their larder to…
July 2016 ComRes polling that had 42% of Leave voters prioritising staying in the single market. Any politician trying to assert that what they propose, as we enter the final month of Article 50 process, is the “will of the people” should be treated like a snake oil salesman. It is now nearly three years since the referendum and things have moved on in all sorts of ways particularly in understanding what a possible deal would look like. So I’d…