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CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and more about personal characteristics

1/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After TMay the Tories need someone who does “human” Every day it seems we have a new potential candidate for the next Conservative leader. Liz Truss tells us how she will say what she wants and wear what she wants in the Sunday Times, Dominic Raab tells us what he will do about knife crime, Even IDS may be making a comeback (sorry, joke – I am assuming that was the April’s Fool Day story, right?) However, one theme that…

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The pressure mounts on TMay with a divided cabinet and 11 days to go

1/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chris Grayling ready to put his job on the line So another day when all the focus is on Westminster and Mrs. May’s cabinet as they pitch in with their own positions to try to influence this massive decision for the future of the UK. TMay is already in a weakened position with much less control of the Westminster agenda following the procedural defeat which put so much extra power in the hands of MPs This is how Sam Coates…

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Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be in tatters and that has betting implications

31/3/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Michael Gove 2016 > "The day after we leave, we hold all the cards" Michael Gove 2019 > “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit tariffs on beef and sheep meat would be above 40%”#PieceOfShit pic.twitter.com/dFOPRklr3V — Marie-Ann Detests Tories ?? ?? ?? (@MarieAnnUK) March 20, 2019 Like David Herdson I fear that No Deal is imminent and likely, especially with 170 Tory MPs in favour of it, so what are the implications…

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This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith looking to succeed Theresa May. I REPEAT THIS IS NOT AN EARLY APRIL FOOLS’ DAY STORY

31/3/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Iain Duncan Smith eyes second spell as Tory leader as he considers throwing hat into ring to succeed PMhttps://t.co/m3mBiYerB0 pic.twitter.com/kI6FXinrRC — Mirror World News (@MirrorWorldNews) March 30, 2019 Why I’m not betting on the quiet man succeeding Mrs May. When I first saw the tweet above my reaction was a mixture of laughter and language not fit to be published on a family friendly website like politicalbetting. But once I read the story I’m quite prepared to bet a lot…

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Observer reporting that CON MPs would block TMay’s plan to call snap election

30/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

From the Sunday papers that we have now got in the Observer reports that Tory MPs would block the prime minister if she sought to call a general election. This has been heavily hinted at since the Brexit votes were lost on Friday. Before the Fixed Term Parliament Act the choice of choosing a general election date was totally in the hands of the prime minister. The act changed that and now a election can only be called if two-thirds…

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Following the overnight allegations about WH2016 Dem favourite Biden it is hard to see him entering the race

30/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart – Betdata.io The ex-VP’s betting price plummets The past few days have been a taxing one for 76 year old former Vice President Joe Biden as he ponders whether or not to throw his hat into the ring for the 2020 White House Democratic nomination. First came a revival of criticism about his handling in the early 1990s of the Anita Hill hearing when he was chairman of the Senate judiciary committee. She had been brought in as a…

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No Deal remains imminent and likely

30/3/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Picture Judy Goldhill The Withdrawal Agreement remains an unmet EU expectation A failure to understand the other side’s point of view has been more than a running Brexit theme: it’s infected every aspect of Britain’s relationship with what’s now the EU throughout the last seven decades. Unsurprising then that miscalculations and misunderstandings continue to be made. That the same problem affects the domestic dialogue of the deaf that represents the Leave-Remain debate is hardly a cause for consolation. The cost…

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Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

29/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

?? Latest Brexit Odds ??1/3 UK holds European Elections in May8/11 2019 General Election2/1 2019 Referendum2/1 UK leaves with NO DEAL on April 12th — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 29, 2019 And on Betfair On Betfair a 2019 general election now a 54% chance@betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/AZ4AyKmpDu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet