More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

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IDS's soeech aimed at the #erg – balance of risk has changed even though the #WA hasn't – support the deal and get changes under new leadership. but that same message may dissuade some potential ?@UKLabour? rebels pic.twitter.com/ky486ZKqC5 — iain watson (@iainjwatson) March 29, 2019 And a “helpful” intervention from Osbo Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: Happy No Brexit Day! pic.twitter.com/vrPH8MVDa3 — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 29, 2019 I’m sitting on a number of bets on by March 30th in Betfair’s “When will…

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24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove the clear betting favourite to be next PM

24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove the clear betting favourite to be next PM

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange We are going to see a lot of this chart in the next few weeks – how punters on the Betfair exchange are seeing the Tory succession. I choose Betfair because this is an exchange market where punters, not bookmakers, are setting the odds and you do get more movement. At the moment it is the Environment Secretary Michael Gove who is making the running ahead of ex-Mayor, Johnson. Interesting that the…

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It’s time we moved back to MPs choosing the party leader instead not members

It’s time we moved back to MPs choosing the party leader instead not members

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Having a leader who is not the choice of MPs will inevitably lead to problems Consider where British politics is quite likely to be in a few months time – LAB still being led by Corbyn who is opposed by most of his MPs and Johnson being the CON leader in spite of his relative lack of parliamentary support Both would be in their jobs because of their appeal to party members and neither command the support of their parliamentary…

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The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

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Will she stay if Brexit doesn’t happen? It is not often that the papers are all at one over what is the big news of the day. Interestingly as well they mostly use the same picture of Theresa May to illustrate their stories and this, my guess, will go down as a match to the shots of Maggie Thatcher in the car as she was leaving Downing Street for the last time in November 1990. The problem with her withdrawal…

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The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might be alienating LAB soft brexiteers and CON remainers

The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might be alienating LAB soft brexiteers and CON remainers

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if Johnson or Raab is in charge of negotiations on future relationship with EU, which are more important some would say than the divorce talks, that relationship will be uber Brexity. So in wooing one important constituency to get her deal over the line, she has alienated… — Robert Peston (@Peston) March 27, 2019 This gets more complex by the hour Robert Peston makes a very strong point in his Tweets above about the difficulty TMay has in appealing to…

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The attention now turns to TMay’s attendance at the 1922 committee

The attention now turns to TMay’s attendance at the 1922 committee

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The speculation is that she’ll set out an exit timetable. This is from the Speccies, James Forsyth:- Speculation is rife that she will use the meeting to announce a timetable for her departure, though there’s no official line from Number 10 on this. I understand that Tory switchers are being told that Theresa May will go if the withdrawal agreement bill gets royal assent, which would have to be by May 22nd. This would, obviously, require meaningful vote 3 to…

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With a CON leadership contest perhaps imminent new Ipsos-MORI poll has good and bad news for Johnson

With a CON leadership contest perhaps imminent new Ipsos-MORI poll has good and bad news for Johnson

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Above is a chart just issued by Ipsos Mori on its latest polling on which of a number of leading politicians appear “Prime Ministerial”. Theresa May, clearly, gets a home advantage because she is the incumbent but Corbyn will not be happy with his numbers which are the worst of all in those who were polled. Johnson has the most positive rating  of all the prospective CON leaders 24% but also has the biggest negative number  of  64%. This is…

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