Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a 45% chance

Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a 45% chance

Comments 0 Comment

Following the latest developments in the Commons it is clear that the house as currently constituted is going to be troublesome for the prime minister whoever he or she is for as long as we don’t have a general election. Theresa May’s decision in April two years ago to go early to the country has proved to be something of a disaster and if indeed she had achieved what she was hoping to do then the parliamentary arithmetic would have…

Read More Read More

On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chance on Monday to a 21% chance now

On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chance on Monday to a 21% chance now

Comments 0 Comment

Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io How TMay’s speech last night impacted on the betting The top UK political betting market at the moment is the above one on whether there is actually going to be a no deal brexit in 2019. The chart is based on the Betfair Exchange where the bookmaker does not set the odds but punters are trading with each other. The big message from Theresa May’s dramatic invitation to Jeremy Corbyn yesterday evening was that…

Read More Read More

Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

Meanwhile what’s been happening in the local elections

Comments 0 Comment

Harry Hayfield’s March 2019 Local By-Election Summary Labour 6,624 votes (32% unchanged on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservatives 5,024 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,626 votes (17% +4% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,641 votes (8% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Independents 1,154 votes (6% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat…

Read More Read More

So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections

So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections

Comments 0 Comment

This could be good branding for possible Euro elections One of he potentially big developments that came out at the end of last week was the decision by the Independent Group to seek registration as an official party under the name of  Change UK. The grouping, of course, features the LAB MPs who left Corbyn’s party in February followed by the three women Tory MPs who left their party a few days later. It is the only grouping that has…

Read More Read More

The Brexit deadlock: Some group has got to shift bit it is not clear who that will be

The Brexit deadlock: Some group has got to shift bit it is not clear who that will be

Comments 0 Comment

Who is going to fold first? After another deadlocked day at Westminster the time is running out before the April 12th deadline and if the UK is not to slip out of the EU then without a deal then some grouping has got to change their previously set out strong position. Let’s start with the EU itself. Will it hold to it’s now extension from the April 12th without a firm plan from the UK or will it actually relent…

Read More Read More

The chaos continues as MPs reject all Brexit options

The chaos continues as MPs reject all Brexit options

Comments 0 Comment

No option passes in Commons votes Results here: https://t.co/7R7Ty34J5g — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 1, 2019 Basically, it's May's deal, No Deal or General Election. — Theo Usherwood (@theousherwood) April 1, 2019 You get the feeling Parliament couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory. https://t.co/ueCaoZuEAy — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 1, 2019 https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1112826601308385280 So tonight we’ve seen Steve Baker on verge of tears about rebelling against party, Nick Boles similarly emotional as he quits party; others facing…

Read More Read More

CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and more about personal characteristics

CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and more about personal characteristics

Comments 0 Comment

After TMay the Tories need someone who does “human” Every day it seems we have a new potential candidate for the next Conservative leader. Liz Truss tells us how she will say what she wants and wear what she wants in the Sunday Times, Dominic Raab tells us what he will do about knife crime, Even IDS may be making a comeback (sorry, joke – I am assuming that was the April’s Fool Day story, right?) However, one theme that…

Read More Read More

The pressure mounts on TMay with a divided cabinet and 11 days to go

The pressure mounts on TMay with a divided cabinet and 11 days to go

Comments 0 Comment

Chris Grayling ready to put his job on the line So another day when all the focus is on Westminster and Mrs. May’s cabinet as they pitch in with their own positions to try to influence this massive decision for the future of the UK. TMay is already in a weakened position with much less control of the Westminster agenda following the procedural defeat which put so much extra power in the hands of MPs This is how Sam Coates…

Read More Read More